Strategy & Theory: NBA Christmas Day Games

Sports bettors are always looking for an edge.  Whether it be with early lines, injury reports, or more obscure things that can alter a perceived value play, sports bettors try to tip the scales in their favor.  One trend that has become more mainstream in the last handful of years is NBA Christmas Day Unders.

As the theory goes, the early games in particular, have totals that are higher than they should be when compared to the variables for Christmas Day.  A seasoned bettor knows that the books adjust the line to compensate or account for this.  In fact, some bookmakers have publicly stated that the have been doing this for years.  They way we see it, there are two variables that come into play here.

First, remember that there are 82 games in the regular season.  A win or loss on Christmas Day counts the same as a win in October or a loss in January.  The distraction of Christmas, whether being on the road without family, or enjoying the tradition of opening presents before a home game, will lead the players and coaches to remember this is only one game in the season.  Not that they don’t want to win, but neither team is likely giving it their best effort.  It is easier to play a slower pace when not being as motivated.  Typically, when players are tired (see below), shots fall short.  Lots of rebounds and more running up and down the court leads toward the under.

Second, the time of the game matters.  There have traditionally been five games on Christmas Day and it is the early ones, naturally, where this theory applies the most.  In fact, since 2005, the under is 26-9 (74.28%) on games with tip off between 12:00 and 5:30.  While the sample size is small, this is a trend to keep an eye on.  The adjustment for the players to get the proper rest prior to an early tip off is not made easily, if at all.

Remember to think through these variables when looking at the first three matchups on Christmas Day.  Compare the scoring offense and defense numbers for both teams to the total.  The books will undoubtedly make a minor adjustment for this theory, the question is, did they adjust it enough?

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Strategy & Theory: Bowl Games

This is the first of what will ultimately be many posts related to strategies and theories of sports gambling.  Hopefully, this will serve as a resource to check back to as a reminder.  Today, we will have a brief discussion on Bowl Season.

When thinking of Bowl Season and placing action, the very first thing you should consider is this... MOTIVATION.  Who has it?  Does one team/coach have something to prove?  Does a team not care about their game for various reasons?  Are the star players even playing? All of these variables should be carefully considered before placing action.

A few quick stories:  First, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.  This matchup was between Oklahoma and Boise St.  Oklahoma had National Championship aspirations, which were ultimately derailed.  Still a big draw, they faced the upstart Boise State Broncos.  Boise was a 7 1/2 point dog for this game.  If you’ve been around long enough, you’ve probably seen how this ended.  There was a hook-and-lateral and a Statue of Liberty that helped Boise win outright.  There was also a proposal by a running back to a cheerleader but that's another story.

Next, we look at the 2014 Fiesta Bowl with UCF vs. Baylor.  Baylor and Art Briles were 16 1/2 point favorites vs. UCF.  Baylor had missed out on a National Championship game and was obviously disappointed.  Blake Bortles and the Knights won by 10 in this one while scoring 52 against the Bears.

Finally, we look at UCF again vs. Auburn in the 2018 Peach Bowl.  UCF was again looking for respect and their “National Championship” against a SEC opponent.  Auburn was a 10 1/2 point favorite but lost 34-27.

What do these games have in common?  There are several other examples, but the primary factor was motivation.  In each case, the inferior team won.  If each of the above games was for a National Championship, they likely would have all been different.  But each time, the dog had a chip on their shoulder and something to prove.  Motivation is key.  Keep that in mind the next time you see an obvious mismatch of talent and teams.

Also worth noting is what we call the “Fournette” variable.  Leonard Fournette, once the #1 overall high school recruit, sat out the Citrus Bowl.  Not contending for a National Championship, he sat out as to not get injured ahead of the upcoming NFL draft.  This has become a trend in CFB as many potential first round picks not playing for a National Championship do the same.  In fact, it becomes a storyline every Bowl Season as to which top players are sitting out.

Motivation is key to bowl games.  Know who has a chip on their shoulder, and who doesn’t want to be there.  It will serve you well.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store! https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllc Keep checking back! 

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Press Release

December 16, 2019

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Today, Steel City Clothing Company, LLC (@scccllc) and The MoneyLine Show (@moneylineshow) have entered into a collaborative project to cross promote each company while sharing the talents of both organizations. 

The collaboration will involve adding a blog to the @scccllc website (www.steelcityclothingcompanyllc.com) by which @moneylineshow will provide exclusive content discussing all things related to sports gaming. Several topics will be discussed, including theories, stories, experiences, and picks. 

The ultimate goal will be to provide bettors with a place to get current information along with analysis in a concise format. The stories and theories will hopefully provide thought provoking insight to assist bettors on their selections. 

As the website and blog continue to develop, and the brand grows, the customer experience will undoubtedly be enhanced. We invite you to follow both companies on Twitter to receive updates: @scccllc and @moneylineshow