When thinking of Bowl Season and placing action, the very first thing you should consider is this... MOTIVATION. Who has it? Does one team/coach have something to prove? Does a team not care about their game for various reasons? Are the star players even playing? All of these variables should be carefully considered before placing action.
A few quick stories: First, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. This matchup was between Oklahoma and Boise St. Oklahoma had National Championship aspirations, which were ultimately derailed. Still a big draw, they faced the upstart Boise State Broncos. Boise was a 7 1/2 point dog for this game. If you’ve been around long enough, you’ve probably seen how this ended. There was a hook-and-lateral and a Statue of Liberty that helped Boise win outright. There was also a proposal by a running back to a cheerleader but that's another story.
Next, we look at the 2014 Fiesta Bowl with UCF vs. Baylor. Baylor and Art Briles were 16 1/2 point favorites vs. UCF. Baylor had missed out on a National Championship game and was obviously disappointed. Blake Bortles and the Knights won by 10 in this one while scoring 52 against the Bears.
Finally, we look at UCF again vs. Auburn in the 2018 Peach Bowl. UCF was again looking for respect and their “National Championship” against a SEC opponent. Auburn was a 10 1/2 point favorite but lost 34-27.
What do these games have in common? There are several other examples, but the primary factor was motivation. In each case, the inferior team won. If each of the above games was for a National Championship, they likely would have all been different. But each time, the dog had a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. Motivation is key. Keep that in mind the next time you see an obvious mismatch of talent and teams.
Also worth noting is what we call the “Fournette” variable. Leonard Fournette, once the #1 overall high school recruit, sat out the Citrus Bowl. Not contending for a National Championship, he sat out as to not get injured ahead of the upcoming NFL draft. This has become a trend in CFB as many potential first round picks not playing for a National Championship do the same. In fact, it becomes a storyline every Bowl Season as to which top players are sitting out.
Motivation is key to bowl games. Know who has a chip on their shoulder, and who doesn’t want to be there. It will serve you well.
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