Strategy & Theory: Guide to Super Bowl Props

With two weeks of hype, and typically over 400 (!) prop bets available, it is easy to give consideration to a little extra action for the Super Bowl.  After all, you can only look at the spread and over/under so much before getting tempted to take some novelty action sprinkled in.  We will cover some of the most played props for the big game and how to utilize your resources for deciding which action is the best action for the props available.

If you scour the boards, you can typically see everything from how many yards each QB will have (in 10 yard increments) to who the MVP will thank first, to how many times a certain person is mentioned by the broadcast team.  These are examples of what we call sucker props.  The reason is because there is almost no real analysis that can be done to predict the outcome.  Likewise, we consider cross-sport props sucker props.  An example of these are the total points scored in the 2nd quarter compared to all NHL goals that day.  Instead we will focus on what we can research. 

At quick glance, some of these may seem like they are not anything scientific.  But the books that lay these lines take (most of) them very serious.  Especially since they are typically + money action.  With that said, keep in mind that these props are typically geared towards bettors risking a little to try to hit a homerun.  And the books are happy to lay these lines because even though there are huge payouts on some, those pale in comparison to the net gain for the books on props.  Bet accordingly.  One more item to mention, and this cannot be overstated enough: Just because a coin toss has landed one way 7/9 years, or the team with less travel distance has covered 3/5, or Conference Champions playing in their Conference’s stadium have won 11/18 doesn’t mean that is the play this year or any year.  Do you know what those teams have to do with the current teams?  NOTHING.  With that said, here are 10 standard props that we feel a bettor has a better than average chance of winning profitably.

Coin toss:  the reason this prop bet is listed is because the juice is typically reduced.  Usually from -110 to at least -105, and some shops will lay this at -102.  Anytime you can get juice that low on something that is literally 50/50, degenerates should take notice.  You will hear bettors talk about how the history of the toss has gone (assuming the coin actually rotates in the air) leading into the game.  This means absolutely nothing.  The odds are 50/50 no matter what.  Pick a side and feel good about paying reduced juice.

Will either team score in the first...:  typically the range is anything from 5 minutes to 7 1/2 minutes.  The longer out the amount of time given, the less return.  The reason we like this is because most teams script plays to start a game, and a defense is trying to feel out what the offense is like, especially if the teams haven’t met in the regular season.  If you watch much NFL, you will notice there are a lot of first drive scores.  Even if an offense goes three/out to start, the other team will get the ball in decent territory to cover the YES bet on these.

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD: Ask yourself this question: how often does this happen in a typical NFL game?  The answer is less than 50%.  Hence take NO.

Will there be a safety: A safety has occurred in 0.067% of ALL games. Take NO. 

Will there be overtime: Approximately 5% of ALL games have gone to OT. Take NO.

Length of National Anthem:  This is one where research comes into play.  Do your homework.  Find out in advance who is singing the National Anthem and go to YouTube.  Most of the people who have sung the National Anthem for the SuperBowl have done it before elsewhere, hence YouTube.  Watch several times the singer has done it, giving more weight to the most recent times.  Then check your analysis against the over/under of time.  Stay away if it is close.  This is subjective to what your book thinks the time is from the first note to last note.

Will the opening kickoff be a touchback:  Another research opportunity.  We can remember one of the games the Patriots were in years ago.  Both kickers had a high touchback percentage.  But especially the Patriots kicker.  New England plays outdoors for their eight home games, and their three division rivals are also outdoors.  That was at least 11/16 games outdoors.  That year the Super Bowl was indoors.  No elements to alter the kick.  The thought was both kickers do it frequently, but it would be especially nice if the Patriots kicked off to start the game.  What happened?  The Patriots kicked off to start the game, and kicked the ball to the 10 yard line.  THE 10 YARD LINE!  Hence the reason these are props.  The analysis was correct, the result didn’t follow.  But bettors are always looking for an edge and this one provides quantitative analysis that can be used to place action.  

Will a team score 4 straight times without the other team scoring: Typically if there are two high-powered offenses, this is an easy bet on the No. The only real concern would be if one team scores a couple of times before halftime and then gets the ball first in the second half. A lot of books will lay this at three times, which can be easy to do with the scenario we just described.  Stay with the 4 times scenario and take the No. 

Total players attempting a pass o/u 2.5: The best thing to do on this is check the season passing totals for both teams to see how many attempts were made by non-quarterbacks. Other than getting the two starting quarterbacks you could have an injury that would bring in a back up quarterback, or a blowout game that may also bring in a back up quarterback with a good attempt to pass. But basically you are looking for a wide receiver or running back that has attempted to pass. Remember to check both teams. It only takes one extra player.

Will there be a successful 2pt conversion: The reason that we like the No on this situation is because first, there has to be an attempt.  Second, it would have to be successful to lose this bet.  2pt conversion attempts don’t happen in most games but they are becoming more common. 

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Bankroll Management: The 1% Rule

One of the most important things in this business is know bankroll management.  We’ve touched on it a bit in previous articles, and more will follow, but it cannot be overstated how important this concept it.  You need to be able to weather the storm.  Part of bankroll management is determining your standard bet size.  Your bankroll is all of the funds you have set aside for action.  And nothing more.

There is a lot of math in this business.  For the purposes of this article, we are going to show what is considered the standard, which can be described as “The 1% Rule”.  Ups and downs are inevitable.  Seasoned veterans know this, and have experienced both highs and lows.  It isn’t uncommon to win, or lose, several bets in a row.  Recreational bettors typically do not even consider this theory, and quite frankly, it doesn’t apply to them.  They simply decide how much action they would like to have on a particular game, etc.  But professionals know the importance of standard bet size to their bankroll.  

The 1% Rule is simply betting 1% of your CURRENT bankroll on the action of your choice.  Just because it is a “big game” doesn’t change the bet size.  That is a trap aspiring bettors frequently fall into.  Also note that we said current.  If you have a $10k bankroll, that means a standard bet size is $100. If you lose a few bets and your bankroll is now $9,700, your new standard bet size is $97.  Discipline is key here.  Many bettors have lost their bankroll chasing bad bets with larger action only to lose their entire bankroll.  

Professional poker players understand this as well.  The WSOP has held $1M buy-in events.  Even the top professionals who CAN post the prestigious buy-in don’t use all of their own funds.  Instead they sell shares via sites like YouStake or Stake Kings.  It should be noted that even for the $10k Main Event, several players sell stakes to raise funds.

Following the 1% rule allows a bettor to ride out the inevitable bad string of losses.  We feel a constant understanding of your bankroll is paramount to being in this business for the long haul.  

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available!  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllc  Keep checking back! 

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Bankroll Management: So You Want to be a Professional Sports Bettor...

Have you ever considered what it takes, financially, to be a professional sports bettor?  As in, this is your primary, or only, source of income?  The business has ups and downs.  Good bets go bad, and bad bets hit.  We will cover the bankroll needed at a later date.  After all, you need to be able to weather the storm of the inevitable string of losses.  But for this article, we will focus on the math behind what it takes to make this your profession.

The most important number you need to know is what your total expenses are.  This number includes everything you need to live your lifestyle.  We call this number the “nut” as in “nut to crack”.  Anything over/above this can go towards savings, larger bet size, or frivolous material things.  But it is recommended to have a “rainy day” fund to help cover a series of losses.

Another important variable is the win rate.  Break even in this business is just under 53% when including the juice.  Professionals aim for 60%.  Be realistic.  It is highly unlikely that with any volume you will hit at 70%.  60% should be the target, especially for budgeting and calculations.

Finally, bet size is needed for calculating what it takes.  Are you placing $50 per bet?  $100? More?  With the higher the bet size, the easier it is to get to the nut when you win.  It is also more daunting of a task when you lose.

For illustration purposes, we’ll use a number of $3,000 per month for the nut and a win rate of 60%.  After all, that is the target for professionals.  We’ll also use a bet size of $100, which is common for recreational bettors and aspiring professionals.  Using these inputs, you need to make 220 bets per month to hit the nut.  The monthly math goes like this:

220 bets at $100 each

60% win rate: 132 wins, at 90% (post juice) = $11,880

40% loss rate:  88 losses, at 100% loss = $8,800

Net for the month = $3,080

When looking at this scenario, the most staggering number is the number of bets per month.  Is it really possible to find 220 bets you like in a month?  There is one more variable to consider: Taxes.  

Assuming a 20% tax rate, the number of bets to make with the same inputs and meeting the nut increases from 220 to 260.  That is nearly 9 bets every day of every month to crack the nut!

The purpose of the article is this: know your numbers before making this a full time profession.  The illustration above uses a 60% win rate. Try applying the numbers to your own specific situation.  If your nut is higher than $3,000, or even if it is around there, you may need to increase the bet size.  Finding 9 bets you like everyday of the year is highly unlikely.  Increasing your bet size will help.  The question is, do you have the bankroll to sustain it.  That will be the topic of a different article.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow Shirts now available! https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllc Keep checking back! 

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PSA: Load Management

Often times over the course of a basketball, baseball, and hockey season, we hear the term “load management” mentioned. This can be an important concept to keep in mind for looking at early betting lines.  Sometimes these decisions to rest certain players happen mere hours before a game starts. 

Load management is where a player, typically if this is mentioned it is a star player, rests a game as a “healthy scratch” to gain additional time off with the intent to be more rested for later in the season. Certain players move lines more than others. LeBron or Kawhi might move a game line or total several points by themselves. 

College football has a 12 game season, more with postseason play. The NFL has 16. With so few games, each game is important to a team for making the playoffs and even seeding. In basketball (particularly the NBA), hockey, and baseball, load management is more common. 

If you are thinking of placing action on a basketball, hockey, or baseball regular season game, give consideration to waiting until right before the game starts and check the injury reports. Also, check the number of games the star players of the team you are betting FOR has played in a row.  If LeBron, Kawhi, Ovechkin, or Trout has played several games in a row, they may be listed as a healthy scratch for load management.  Keep the same in mind when you are betting a total. A healthy scratch for EITHER team will have an impact. 

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available! https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllc  Keep checking back! 

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