Have you ever considered what it takes, financially, to be a professional sports bettor? As in, this is your primary, or only, source of income? The business has ups and downs. Good bets go bad, and bad bets hit. We will cover the bankroll needed at a later date. After all, you need to be able to weather the storm of the inevitable string of losses. But for this article, we will focus on the math behind what it takes to make this your profession.
The most important number you need to know is what your total expenses are. This number includes everything you need to live your lifestyle. We call this number the “nut” as in “nut to crack”. Anything over/above this can go towards savings, larger bet size, or frivolous material things. But it is recommended to have a “rainy day” fund to help cover a series of losses.
Another important variable is the win rate. Break even in this business is just under 53% when including the juice. Professionals aim for 60%. Be realistic. It is highly unlikely that with any volume you will hit at 70%. 60% should be the target, especially for budgeting and calculations.
Finally, bet size is needed for calculating what it takes. Are you placing $50 per bet? $100? More? With the higher the bet size, the easier it is to get to the nut when you win. It is also more daunting of a task when you lose.
For illustration purposes, we’ll use a number of $3,000 per month for the nut and a win rate of 60%. After all, that is the target for professionals. We’ll also use a bet size of $100, which is common for recreational bettors and aspiring professionals. Using these inputs, you need to make 220 bets per month to hit the nut. The monthly math goes like this:
220 bets at $100 each
60% win rate: 132 wins, at 90% (post juice) = $11,880
40% loss rate: 88 losses, at 100% loss = $8,800
Net for the month = $3,080
When looking at this scenario, the most staggering number is the number of bets per month. Is it really possible to find 220 bets you like in a month? There is one more variable to consider: Taxes.
Assuming a 20% tax rate, the number of bets to make with the same inputs and meeting the nut increases from 220 to 260. That is nearly 9 bets every day of every month to crack the nut!
The purpose of the article is this: know your numbers before making this a full time profession. The illustration above uses a 60% win rate. Try applying the numbers to your own specific situation. If your nut is higher than $3,000, or even if it is around there, you may need to increase the bet size. Finding 9 bets you like everyday of the year is highly unlikely. Increasing your bet size will help. The question is, do you have the bankroll to sustain it. That will be the topic of a different article.
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