Develop a New Specialty

Professional gamblers are just that.  Professional.  There is no backstop W-2.  No trust fund.  Just the daily grind of the business.   Day in and day out. 

During unprecedented times, such as the shut down of every major college and professional sport, professionals still need to make a living.  Without having sports to bet on, the bankroll deteriorates quickly.

There is a brief time of the year when there is something similar to this, in a way.  Between roughly June and August, MLB is the only game in town.  The NBA and NHL have finished their postseasons, and college football and the NFL have not started.  This is why so many professional gamblers follow baseball so close.  There are always a plethora of games on any given day.

We have mentioned in other posts about the need to specialize.  To have something you know inside and out.  It could be a sport like the NFL, or a conference like MAC basketball.  Having a specialization allows you to focus on soft numbers the books post and use them as an opportunity to increase your bankroll.  

This can also work for an environment where there are no major sports being played, such as with the coronavirus shutdown.  Even with no major professional sports, you can still place action on soccer, horses, politics, tennis, esports, cricket, UFC/MMA, NASCAR, and IndyCar.  Use downtime to develop a new specialization.  It will serve you well in times where limited action is available as you can place your action with more confidence and take advantage of soft lines.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Strategy & Theory: Teams Try to Win, Not Cover

Teams try to win, not cover.  It sounds like it should go without saying.  So why do we mention this?  Because we should keep this in mind when looking at lines for games, especially larger lines in football and basketball.  In the overwhelming majority of cases, teams don’t care about covering the number.  They only care about winning.  

Let’s take a look at a hypothetical game between Team A and Team B.  This football game line is Team A - 17 .  In the last couple of minutes of the game, Team A has the ball at Team B’s 20 yard line, and are up by 14.  If you laid the 17, you would be in trouble.  It’s not that Team A COULDN’T put up another touchdown, or even kick a field goal, to give you the win or at least a tie.  It’s that they WON’T.  Team A doesn’t care about covering the spread.  They want to run the clock out.  They might even run a 4th down running play, turning the ball over, instead of kicking that field goal.  Sometimes announcers even indirectly comment on these things at the end of games.  Brent Musberger famously said about a score at the end of a game that meant nothing to the outcome ... “That score means more to some than others”.  If you’ve been betting any amount of time, you’ve probably watched games that have been decided for who wins and who loses long before the final whistle to see how these types of scenarios play out.

So how do we know when to consider laying the spread, and how do we know when to lean more towards the moneyline?  Some things to consider are shown below:

Football and Basketball:  Generally speaking, the higher the spread, the more you should take the moneyline.  While the higher spread reduces the payout on a moneyline, the ROI is still very nice in general (as discussed in a previous article).  Teams want to win, not cover.  If the game is in hand, the team with a substantial lead generally tries to run the clock out, even at the expense of not scoring or even letting the other team score.

Baseball and Hockey:  these games are both usually + or - 1.5.  In baseball, it is called the run line.  In hockey, it is called the puck line.  In baseball, one phenomenon to consider is that typically late in games, the team with a lead will often gladly give up a run to get an out.  In hockey, a phenomenon to consider is that the team that is losing typically pulls their goalie at the end of the game, sometimes giving up another goal in the process. These two trends can wreck your tickets at the end of games. 

The point of this is to keep in mind that teams try to win, not cover.  Keep that in mind the next time you like a football team to cover 17 or a hockey team laying 1.5 goals at -185.  Taking the moneyline might be the safe play.  And it might also be the only profitable play for the team you want action on.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts available at https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Strategy & Theory: March Madness betting guide

There are several theories on picking a winning March Madness bracket for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  We are not talking about favorite colors or states you’d like to visit.  Instead, we are thinking about strategies and theories to show trends or anything else that can be gleaned from years of experience coupled with current matchups, injuries, etc.  We are not a proponent of picking chalk (the favorites).  After all, we have seen a 1 seed lose in the first round along with a handful of 2 seeds, and several 3’s and 4’s.

So what is an effective format to employ in picking a bracket for an office pool, or even to utilize in specific games or regional champion bets?  As we see it, there are three basic criteria that comes into play:

Final Four Coach: obviously every coach that wins the tournament has to get a first Final Four.  But having said that, look at this list of active coaches that have made it to MULTIPLE Final Fours: Coach K, Roy Williams, Tom Izzo, Jim Boeheim, John Calipari, Bill Self, Jay Wright, Bob Huggins, Lon Kruger.  If you are in doubt on a pick for your bracket, see if any of these names are coaching.  They are proven winners in March.

Great Guard Play:  Typically speaking, this comes down to having a great point 

guard, but can also be a great shooting guard.  Historically speaking, teams that have a great point guard have advanced further than teams with solid overall teams.  Most of this can be explained with X’s and O’s with dribble/drive, etc.  The point is, players you have never heard of can take over a game, especially with one of the coaches above guiding them.  

Tournament success: One other component of Tournament Success is ... Tournament Success.  Take a look at the two most recent UCONN championship teams.  In 2011, they were picked to finish 10th in the Big East, yet they won the Maui Invitational.  They finished the regular season 9th in conference.  But, they had a Coach who has won a championship before (Jim Calhoun) and great guard play (Kamba Walker).  They won five conference tournament games in five days to win the Big East Tournament and ultimately won the National Championship.  The 2014 UCONN team had many of the same characteristics.  Coach Kevin Ollie had played for Jim Calhoun and was an assistant on that 2011 team, and they had great guard play with Shabazz Napier.  This team won the 2k Sports Classic and ultimately the National Championship as a 7 seed.

When filling out your bracket, make sure to give consideration to these criteria when unsure.  And now that you have the framework for picking a winning bracket, make sure to buy a Dr. of Bracketology shirt at  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcto show everyone!  Thanks for reading.  #shootersshoot

10 Rules for Selling Sports Picks

If you have spent any time in this business, you have inevitably run across syndicates or individuals trying to sell you their “expert” picks.  While there are several good services out there, many are not.  So how do you know if a service is good?  Staying power is important... you wouldn’t want to buy picks from someone who started last week... how long have they been in the space?  Also, it’s important to note that using a standard 10% juice, and keeping the same bet size, you need to win 53% of the time to break even (which is a future blog posting). 

Having said this, we have created the 10 Rules for Sports Picks Services.  They are as follows:

1. Offer free picks.  There should be opportunities for new customers to consider these picks.  Track the history of the free picks.  Are they winning or losing overall?
2. A service shouldn’t charge for picks unless they will, at least occasionally, discloses evidence of them already making the same pick offered. Also, this will show how much “skin” the service has in the game.  Don’t take advice from someone who doesn’t have to live with the consequences.  
3. Admit when you lose.  Don’t always use excuses like a bad call by a ref.  Sometimes those things happen.  But that is also part of sports betting.
4. A win is singular.  It does not count as more than one win and you can’t ride the coattails of one win for long.
5. Have a catchy “lock” to get people excited.  Examples used already are: Stone Cold Lead Pipe, Blood Bank Guarantee, Bet the Kids College Fund, and Mortal Lock.  Be creative and use sparingly. 
6. You don’t know everything.  Tell us what you follow (ie college football, horses, tennis, NBA)
7. Specialize in something: a lot of interest in SEC football but a win in MAC basketball counts the same.  Be known for your specialty.  
8. Be interesting. This can be done in several ways, but just be yourself.
9. Offer Q&A sessions via Twitter, Periscope, or similar.
10. Be concise.  Give the reasons why for your picks is short form.  It doesn’t take 30 minutes of reading to come to a conclusion of Patriots -3.

A sports betting service should use the proceeds from sales of picks to enhance profit, not be the sole source of it.  Next time you are thinking of subscribing to a service, or just want to review the service you use, reread this list.  

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. T-shirts now available at https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllc!! 

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