Strategy & Theory: Play Like A Contrarian?

A sports bettor once said, “They didn’t build all those casinos in Vegas on winners”. In other words, the house always wins in the end. So if professional sports bettors make a net profit, and a living, how do the sports book stay open? The answer is all of the non-professional sports bettors.

These non-professional sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of the action placed on sporting events. We have commonly referred to them as recreational sports bettors. They are clearly of a different caliber than the professionals. And while they have the same goal as the professionals, their livelihood is not at stake.

Different books release information as to the bet count and money on a particular event. Keeping in mind that recreational sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of action placed, it is safe to assume that when you see the bet count, or ticket count, swing well into the 70% range, that is where the recreational bettors, or public money, is. One thing to keep in mind is the public has an average bet size of substantially less than the professionals. The books almost don’t care where the bet count is. And neither should you. Another old saying is, “follow the money”. If 70% of the action is one way, and the line has not moved, it is because the professionals are taking the other side, and for a lot of money.

This leads to an interesting opportunity. It is commonly referred to as contrarian betting. At the end of the day, the book makes money. Maybe not on any one particular game. But over a long period of time, they do. Year in and year out. Therefore, if you can find a situation in which the bet count, or ticket count, is at a high clip, it may be worth taking the other side, and doing it consistently as a strategy. You will then be on the side of the book, and as we just said, the book always wins in the end.

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Same Game, Different Lines

Have you ever wondered why the lines for a particular game differ slightly from book to book?  Knowing this information can help you be more informed and also help to know which side to lean to for a game.  First, a quick review of the process the books use to set lines:

For several years, the books in Vegas would get their opening lines from companies like Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC).  This group would set the lines and ultimately the books would use them in their shops.  The sports book manager has the ability to alter the lines for posting, and then the computers/book managers take over adjusting the lines based upon action placed as to not get too heavy on either side of a bet.

Another factor to consider is the popularity of a particular team.  A prime example of this is USC football.  Back in the Pete Carroll USC days, the books were taking excessive action on USC at any realistic line they could post.  They had quite the following with both professional sports bettors and the public.  When the books realized this, they adjusted their lines accordingly.  Word on the street was they were adding up to 3 points to the side and total for these games at the open, just to start hedging all of the USC action they would get.

When you are placing your action, check the lines at different books.  A half point can make the difference between a win and a loss.  Also understand if the book has a bias towards or against a certain team.  They may be adjusting the lines accordingly.

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Difference Between Fans vs. Pros

Fans and professional gamblers are different.  In fact, one of the first things that professional sports bettors do is drop any allegiance they have to a team.  The main reason for this is that it can cloud your judgement.  If you are a fan of a team, you often times don’t see how bad the bad is, or think the good is actually great.  This can lead to devastating losses to your bankroll.  Some sports bettors even take it as far as not placing any action on their favorite teams, whether ATS, O/U, or even totals.

Another distinction to be made between fans and pros is the fact that the pros make their mortgage payments based upon maximizing their bankroll.  Fans don’t.  This leads the pros to an entirely different level of research.  With that research, comes the need for information, and timing is of the essence.  

In the fall of 2013, as college football teams were preparing for their season, Ohio State was one of the favorites to win the National Championship.  In a practice leading up to the season opener, starting QB Braxton Miller sustained an injury during practice.  While it didn’t appear to be serious, he was sent for a medical evaluation as a precautionary measure.  While waiting on the test results, something very interesting happened in the futures market... Ohio State dropped to 50:1.  No announcement had been made about Miller’s status, but the pros and the books knew already.  Braxton Miller was done for the year.  Hours later OSU made the announcement that Miller’s season was in fact done.  

The reason for the story is this: fans of Ohio State waited on the press conference.  Professional sports bettors, and the books, got the information earlier and in another manner.  When your livelihood is on the line, information, and the timing of that information, means everything.  The next time someone asks you what you think about an injury to a star player, or where a coveted free agent is going, just ask a professional gambler.  They may have just placed action, and made their next mortgage payment, on it.

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Listed, Not Action

We’ve previously written about the importance of the starting pitcher in baseball.  Perhaps the only other positions in sports that can have a similar impact on a sporting event are the starting QB in football, a goalie in hockey, and maybe a point guard in basketball.  So it goes without saying that if you are looking to place action on a MLB game, knowing the starting pitcher, and even to a large extent the bullpen of that team, is paramount in making your decision.  As we’ve discussed, this pertains to the moneyline, the run line, and the total.

The next most important thing to keep in mind is that these starting pitchers get “scratched” or changed for various reasons.  Sometimes it is injury related.  Sometimes it is a “healthy scratch” which means the pitcher is getting a start off for rest or “load management”.  This can, and often does, happen the day of the game.

If this happens and you placed your bet with the designation of “action”, your bet is still live.  Action just means as long as the game is played, your bet will be placed.  If you placed your wager with “listed”, the pitcher(s) listed must start the game for the bet to be live.

If you think through all the scenarios (moneyline, run line, and total) you can see how a change to EITHER starting pitcher could, and probably should, make you second guess if you should place the action.  If nothing else, it would require more research on the change to validate your initial thought process and methodology.

Sports bettors typically look to take out as many variables as they can to focus on finding soft lines or an edge.  The idea of a pitcher being scratched after you’ve poured significant research into determining your bet, leads to our recommendation to only select “listed” for your wagers.  It is better to make sure the variables that led you to place your bet (ie the starting pitchers) are still in play rather than leave it to chance.  

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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