Strategy & Theory: Play Like A Contrarian?

A sports bettor once said, “They didn’t build all those casinos in Vegas on winners”. In other words, the house always wins in the end. So if professional sports bettors make a net profit, and a living, how do the sports book stay open? The answer is all of the non-professional sports bettors.

These non-professional sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of the action placed on sporting events. We have commonly referred to them as recreational sports bettors. They are clearly of a different caliber than the professionals. And while they have the same goal as the professionals, their livelihood is not at stake.

Different books release information as to the bet count and money on a particular event. Keeping in mind that recreational sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of action placed, it is safe to assume that when you see the bet count, or ticket count, swing well into the 70% range, that is where the recreational bettors, or public money, is. One thing to keep in mind is the public has an average bet size of substantially less than the professionals. The books almost don’t care where the bet count is. And neither should you. Another old saying is, “follow the money”. If 70% of the action is one way, and the line has not moved, it is because the professionals are taking the other side, and for a lot of money.

This leads to an interesting opportunity. It is commonly referred to as contrarian betting. At the end of the day, the book makes money. Maybe not on any one particular game. But over a long period of time, they do. Year in and year out. Therefore, if you can find a situation in which the bet count, or ticket count, is at a high clip, it may be worth taking the other side, and doing it consistently as a strategy. You will then be on the side of the book, and as we just said, the book always wins in the end.

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