Getting the Best Line

One way that seasoned sports bettors use to determine if they got value on their ticket is to compare their number to the closing line.  The theory is, all of the information available and last minute action has come in right before the event begins.  If the bettor got in on the Redskins -7 the week leading up to their game, and the line went to Redskins -6 1/2, the bettor “left points on the table”.  Conversely, if the line went to Redskins -7 1/2, the bettor got a better number.  While this is certainly worth noting, even documenting to help make us better, at the end of the day it only matters what number is on your ticket.  Not what the line closed at.  Like Brent Musberger always says... “It’s all about cashing tickets”.  The closing number is irrelevant.

But, if the action was being considered at Redskins -7, wouldn’t it be nice to know what direction the line would likely move?  Thankfully, there are three sources we can use to help gauge which direction the line is likely to move.

First, and least reliable, is ticket count.  This is the number of actual bets made one way or another.  In theory the higher the ticket count as a percentage of total tickets for that bet, the more likely it is the line will move in the opposite direction.  The reason this is the least reliable is because the books don’t care about ticket count.  They care about dollars.  Which leads to the next source.

The second, and a more reliable way to gauge potential line movement, is dollar count.  At the end of the day, if a book is balanced 50/50 on a bet offering, they will net the juice.  They have a financial incentive to do this.  And their easiest and most effective way to do so is move the line in the opposite direction of the bets based on dollars to entice action on the other side.

Finally, technology has been able to assist us with providing insight as to how a line is likely to move.  SportsInsights has an algorithm that uses historical data, injury reports, ticket and dollar count, weather updates, etc to help gauge with high level of accuracy which direction the line is moving.  You can follow them on Twitter @linepredictor to get a feel for what they do.  They also offer the service through the SportsInsights website.  

Getting the best number will help you win more bets in the long run.  Make sure to use the resources available to you such as the SportsInsights app, which can show you the bet count and dollar count percentages.  Cashing tickets is what it’s all about.

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