Strategy & Theory: NFL Teasers

Teaser bets are available in football and basketball.  They give the bettor the opportunity to swing the spread in their favor by a pre-determined amount of points.  However, much like a parlay, all teams selected must cover the number in order to win the bet.

Statistically speaking, the higher the points scored, the less the value of each point in a teaser.  This is why most professionals stay away from teaser plays in both college basketball and the NBA.  Additionally, there are typically more points scored in college football than the NFL.  Again, this is why the professionals stay away from teasers in college football.  This leaves us with the NFL to review how to best utilize this type of wager.

One thing to keep in mind is that the books are typically flooded with public money in the NFL.  And, the public loves to play the favorites.  The books know this and can hedge to their advantage.  The typical hedge amount is usually 1/2 point to 1 point against the favorites.

The best type of play for a standard 2-team teaser are games that you can take advantage of lines that go through the two key numbers (3 and 7).  These numbers are the most realized final spread outcomes in NFL games.  In order to go through these lines, you would need to find favorites ranging from -7.5  to -8.5 (which buys your line down to -1.5 to -2.5) OR underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 (which buys your line up to +7.5 to +8.5).  And, if you are betting the underdogs, remember that the “true line” is probably lower, which means you are getting an additional 1/2 point to 1 point in your favor.

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Why to Follow ATS Trends

Sports bettors are always looking at statistics, trends, film, and games when determining their next bets.  They also use the “eyeball” test.  This industry is based on numbers.  Keeping the pulse of teams is very important to helping increase your bankroll over time.

A number of years ago, the Idaho Vandals football team (yes, they have one) was off to a hot start.  We aren’t talking about their win/loss record.  They were awful.  We’re talking about their ATS record.  They were the only team in the country to be 6-0 against the spread halfway through the season.  While most recreational bettors typically wouldn’t have given the Vandals a second thought, professional bettors had been hammering them for weeks because the team was covering every week.

In 2008, the Detroit Lions made NFL history by becoming the first team to go 0-16 for the regular season.  Again, this team was dreadful.  However, they garnered a lot of support from professional sports bettors.  Why? They were often times double digit dogs.  In the games that the Lions were underdogs of 10 points or more, they were 7-1 ATS.  A lot of professionals made a lot of money backing this dreadful team.

When scouring the weekly betting sheets, it is easy to give attention to the powerhouse teams.  But as we’ve stated so many times before, a dollar won on a small market team (or in this case, a bad team) is the same as a dollar won on a big time team.  Keep an eye out for trends on the bad teams.  Often times they can be your most profitable plays of the week.

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Strategy & Theory: Middling

We’ve often times explained different theories in sports betting in an attempt to help all take advantage of game, and even season, situations.  One little known, and seldom used, strategy is often referred to as Middling.

Middling is where a bettor places a bet on each side of a game, albeit ATS or Total, which allows for an opportunity to hit both bets.  Ultimately this allows the bettor to double the profits if the line or total falls in the “middle”.

If you bet Alabama at -5 1/2 against Ole MIss, and the line moves to Alabama -7 1/2 later, you now bet Ole Miss +7 1/2.  The “middle” is the 2 point difference.  In the event that Alabama wins by 7, you win both bets. Essentially, you are looking to double your profits, and worst case scenario, be down only the juice on one bet.  This falls into the category of low risk, high reward.

The key to doing this is to find a game in which there are large line movements to give your middle as much room to hit as possible.  So, where do we find these games where there is likely to be large line movement on either the spread or total?  We have found the best place is college football and college basketball.  And, more specifically, smaller conference games.  While all eyes are usually on the large conferences (Such as SEC Football, or ACC Basketball), the smaller conferences typically get large line movements because the money comes in heavy from the pros.  It can be typical to find a small conference game that moves by 4-8 points from the opening number to right before kickoff or tipoff.

When going through your bet sheet, remember to look at some of these lines, especially when there are teams that the pros hammer right from the opening line.  It may make sense to take a game early, wait for line movement, and take the opposite side right before the game starts, creating your middle.

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Key Player Point Differential

How may times have we seen an injury, or even a suspension, derail a line or total in this business?  Too many to count.  That is why we feel it makes a lot of sense to have a tool, or some kind of gauge, as to how certain players, or positions as is the case for this post, can impact a spread and total.  

It is worth noting that we feel the best approach when trying to quantify the difference between a player and their backup is to focus solely on significant positions to sports games.  For example, a quarterback in football moves the needle.  A punter typically does not.  Certain positions carry more weight in line setting than others.  It is also worth noting that this typically only applies to professional sports because there is typically known variables between a starter and a backup.  In college sports, there is often little history available to base a new line from.  That said, below are this list of positions in professional sports we feel carry the most weight and therefore should warrant some level of time in analyzing for those times that a player won’t play in the next game and a line has previously been set.  Being able to calculate the differential quickly with your analysis allows you to make a move on a line/total, one way or the other, before the line can get adjusted to new action.  

NFL: QB:  know the difference in “value” between a starter and a backup.  Typically this can range from a half point up to nine points.

NHL: Goalie: there can be a lot of information available here because starting goalies typically get a significant amount of time off during a season, meaning you have a lot of games to base the value of the backup.  

MLB: Starting Pitcher: this is a bit different because typically the next biggest variable for a starting pitcher is the bullpen behind them.  Still, it is important to know who the next likely starter is, whether in the starting rotation or someone out of the bullpen.

NBA: Point Guard:  typically everything runs through the point guard on offense.  This is key for looking at team scoring totals.  Also, keep close eye on assist/turnover ratio for the starter and backup.

Typically, when a player is ruled out, lines are taken off the board.  Often times the books don’t know how the public will respond to key positions being ruled out.  Keeping a running log of these positions and their point differential will allow you to take advantage of lines when they open back up after injuries are known.  This quantitative information will allow you to take advantage of a soft line.

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Advice from Sports Bettors to Sports Bettors

We recently ran across an article about advice to sports bettors from sports bettors.  Some of the advice was sound and fundamental, some was humorous.  We thought you would enjoy seeing a compilation of the wisdom (or otherwise).  They are broken down below into two categories: Serious and Not So Serious.  Here they are:

Serious:

• Separate your objectivity from fandom, don’t bet with the heart, but with the brain.
• Bet the number, not the team
• Bankroll Management.  Understand what you want to bet with prior to starting and then determine your unit size.
• Less is more (number of games bet)
• Focus entirely on making the best decisions.  Don’t worry about results.  Those will come in the long-run.
• Process over outcome
• Analyze your performance
• If you can afford to lose, you are betting.  If you can’t, you are gambling
• The number isn’t always the book telling you how they think the game will play out, rather how they think the public will perceive it.
• Shop lines from different books.  The number and juice matter.
• Don’t chase.  Bet with statistics, not emotion.
• Get the best number.  Watch the market.
• Keep emotions out of decision making.
• “They play the National Anthem everyday” (don’t chase in a panic)
• Don’t bet teams that are in your closet.
• The money won on a Super Bowl ticket and the money won on a Korean baseball game are both considered legal tender that can be spent at the same locations.
• Don’t let a string of losses change your discipline.

Not So Serious:

• Whatever you lose o n the 12:00 and 3:30 games, put that on a PAC12 over
• When you think all is lost, there is probably a women’s tennis match starting at 2am in China
• If you lose a bet, don’t be hard on yourself.  You can always double down on the next bet to make up for it.
• If your morning parlay did not hit, then double down on afternoon/evening games
• You’ll eventually hit a 10 team parlay.  Don’t give up.
• The Hawaii game is always there to bail you out.

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