Key Player Point Differential

How may times have we seen an injury, or even a suspension, derail a line or total in this business?  Too many to count.  That is why we feel it makes a lot of sense to have a tool, or some kind of gauge, as to how certain players, or positions as is the case for this post, can impact a spread and total.  

It is worth noting that we feel the best approach when trying to quantify the difference between a player and their backup is to focus solely on significant positions to sports games.  For example, a quarterback in football moves the needle.  A punter typically does not.  Certain positions carry more weight in line setting than others.  It is also worth noting that this typically only applies to professional sports because there is typically known variables between a starter and a backup.  In college sports, there is often little history available to base a new line from.  That said, below are this list of positions in professional sports we feel carry the most weight and therefore should warrant some level of time in analyzing for those times that a player won’t play in the next game and a line has previously been set.  Being able to calculate the differential quickly with your analysis allows you to make a move on a line/total, one way or the other, before the line can get adjusted to new action.  

NFL: QB:  know the difference in “value” between a starter and a backup.  Typically this can range from a half point up to nine points.

NHL: Goalie: there can be a lot of information available here because starting goalies typically get a significant amount of time off during a season, meaning you have a lot of games to base the value of the backup.  

MLB: Starting Pitcher: this is a bit different because typically the next biggest variable for a starting pitcher is the bullpen behind them.  Still, it is important to know who the next likely starter is, whether in the starting rotation or someone out of the bullpen.

NBA: Point Guard:  typically everything runs through the point guard on offense.  This is key for looking at team scoring totals.  Also, keep close eye on assist/turnover ratio for the starter and backup.

Typically, when a player is ruled out, lines are taken off the board.  Often times the books don’t know how the public will respond to key positions being ruled out.  Keeping a running log of these positions and their point differential will allow you to take advantage of lines when they open back up after injuries are known.  This quantitative information will allow you to take advantage of a soft line.

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