Strategy & Theory: College Football Power Rankings Continued

In a previous article we discussed creating a college football preseason power rating.  We set forth the criteria that has served us well after years of efforts.  It is extremely important to review that post because this post builds from it.  The preseason power ranking is only a starting point for the season. The grind doesn’t stop.  These rankings will change each week depending on a wide variety of factors.  Each bettor has their own criteria the follow closely.  

After the first week of college football is played, it is time to update the rankings.  This will need done after every week, leading into bowl season (which all bets are off, so to speak...check out our bowl season post).  Having said this, below are the primary variables we look at to update our weekly power ratings.

• Offensive efficiency
• Defensive efficiency
• 3rd down offense
• 3rd down defense
• Special Teams
• Game Review vs. Opponent
• Health Factor/Injuries
• Turnover Margin

These variables get included along with others used to determine the initial power rankings.  Those other variables are: Head Coach and Conference Rankings.

Most of these variables are self-explanatory based upon statistical research.  Again, how you assign quantitive analysis is up to you. Just be consistent.  A couple of notes on the others: 

Game Review vs. Opponent:  This is rating a team based upon how they compare to their opponent’s averages.  Did they gain significantly more yards, get more 3rd down stops, etc.  There are resources that can do this analysis for you.  

Health Factor:  This is perhaps the most difficult to analyze.  It isn’t truly quantitative.  Just because a “key player” is out, or injured, doesn’t mean a backup can’t have a level of success.  We have traditionally only made significant shifts to this at specific positions.  Those being QB, top RB, top WR, and K.  

For those who have been producing their own power ratings, they know how much of a grind it is.  That said, if done right, it can make the season substantially more profitable.  Power ratings can stop you from making a bad bet, or show you a soft line to jump on. 

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Strategy & Theory: On the Contrary

A sports bettor once said, “They didn’t build all those casinos in Vegas on winners”. In other words, the house always wins in the end. So if professional sports bettors make a net profit, and a living, how do the sports book stay open? The answer is all of the non-professional sports bettors.

These non-professional sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of the action placed on sporting events. We have commonly referred to them as recreational sports bettors. They are clearly of a different caliber than the professionals. And while they have the same goal as the professionals, their livelihood is not at stake.

Different books release information as to the bet count and money on a particular event. Keeping in mind that recreational sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of action placed, it is safe to assume that when you see the bet count, or ticket count, swing well into the 70% range, that is where the recreational bettors, or public money, is. One thing to keep in mind is the public has an average bet size of substantially less than the professionals. The books almost don’t care where the bet count is. And neither should you. Another old saying is, “follow the money”. If 70% of the action is one way, and the line has not moved, it is because the professionals are taking the other side, and for a lot of money.

This leads to an interesting opportunity. It is commonly referred to as contrarian betting. At the end of the day, the book makes money. Maybe not on any one particular game. But over a long period of time, they do. Year in and year out. Therefore, if you can find a situation in which the bet count, or ticket count, is at a high clip, it may be worth taking the other side, and doing it consistently as a strategy. You will then be on the side of the book, and as we just said, the book always wins in the end.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Using Blackjack Strategy for Sports Betting

Years ago, someone mentioned a gambling theory to us.  It was related to Blackjack.  The theory is, every time you lose to the dealer, you double your lost amount on the next hand.  That way, every time you win, you are back to even.  This can be difficult to stomach when you lose several hand in a row, which is inevitable.  

This theory can also be applied to sports betting.  Let’s run through a quick example.  In previous posts, we’ve mentioned the theory of betting 1% of your bankroll as a standard, with a $100 bet size given.  This would mean that your bankroll is $10k.  This predominantly works for football and basketball ATS and over/unders.  It can also work for over/unders for baseball and hockey.  It doesn’t work for run line in baseball or puck line in hockey as the juice varies by game.  We will assume a standard 10% juice in the analysis below:

Bet 1:

Bet $100

Total loss: $100

Bet 2: 

Bet $111.11

Total loss: $211.11

Bet 3:

Bet $234.57

Total loss: $445.68

Bet 4:

Bet $495.20

Total loss: $940.88

Bet 5:

Bet $1,045.42

Total loss: $1,986.30

Bet 6:

Bet $2,207.00

Total loss: $4,193.30

Bet 7:

Bet $4,659.22

Total loss: $8,852.52

This shows that if you start with a 1% initial bet on a $10k bankroll, and you lost 7 straight bets, you would have $1,147.48 left.  Put simply, you need to win by bet 7.  It might not seem like it is that hard to do, but mentally if you have lost 4 or 5 in a row, do you have the stomach to keep going?  

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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