Years ago, someone mentioned a gambling theory to us. It was related to Blackjack. The theory is, every time you lose to the dealer, you double your lost amount on the next hand. That way, every time you win, you are back to even. This can be difficult to stomach when you lose several hand in a row, which is inevitable.
This theory can also be applied to sports betting. Let’s run through a quick example. In previous posts, we’ve mentioned the theory of betting 1% of your bankroll as a standard, with a $100 bet size given. This would mean that your bankroll is $10k. This predominantly works for football and basketball ATS and over/unders. It can also work for over/unders for baseball and hockey. It doesn’t work for run line in baseball or puck line in hockey as the juice varies by game. We will assume a standard 10% juice in the analysis below:
Bet 1:
Bet $100
Total loss: $100
Bet 2:
Bet $111.11
Total loss: $211.11
Bet 3:
Bet $234.57
Total loss: $445.68
Bet 4:
Bet $495.20
Total loss: $940.88
Bet 5:
Bet $1,045.42
Total loss: $1,986.30
Bet 6:
Bet $2,207.00
Total loss: $4,193.30
Bet 7:
Bet $4,659.22
Total loss: $8,852.52
This shows that if you start with a 1% initial bet on a $10k bankroll, and you lost 7 straight bets, you would have $1,147.48 left. Put simply, you need to win by bet 7. It might not seem like it is that hard to do, but mentally if you have lost 4 or 5 in a row, do you have the stomach to keep going?
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