Return on Investment. Commonly referred to as ROI, this is a financial term used to determine how much profit, on a percentage basis, you make on an investment. Real estate investors use this to determine the annual cash return on their projects, and specifically use it to determine which new projects to invest in.
The same theory is true for sports betting. Most sports bettors will take or lay points (ATS) in games, or bet the over/under of a total for a particular event. These gams are typically at 10% juice (-110). But there are other opportunities to place action on the same events. For the purposes of this article, we’ll look past things like parlays and teasers. Instead, we will focus on the moneyline. The moneyline is taking one team to win straight up. For underdogs, the moneyline offers a return over 100%. This is consummate with the risk involved in taking the dog. The higher the point spread (football or basketball), the higher the return over 100%.
However taking the favorite is also an option. This is the focus of our article. When you take a favorite straight up, you will receive a return that is less than (significantly, in some cases) the standard 90% return from the ATS bets. While some argue that the return isn’t that great (you can find these numbers at -120 through -2500 and beyond), an argument can be made that it is still a good ROI.
To use and example, let’s say team A is -200 on the moneyline. You like them to win, but not necessarily cover the spread. A -200 line will return 50% to you in the event of a win. So, if you bet $100, you will get a return of $50. While this is significantly less than the $90 you would win if team A covers the spread, you only need them to win, not win by X amount of points. Consideration should be given to this more often. A ROI of 10% or 30% is better than losing 100% if team A wins but doesn’t cover the number.
This strategy is becoming more prevalent. There are companies that use this theory exclusively because they understand ROI and minimize catastrophic risk (losing the bet). While not a guarantee, you should be able to hit a significantly higher percentage of wins using the moneyline. In a previous article we mentioned that roughly 53% ATS is breakeven considering the juice. You will need to hit a lot higher than 53% to make money to offset the inevitable losses, but it is possible to make money in the long run doing this, at a solid ROI.
One more note... A way to further leverage this return is to parlay moneylines. The standard 3 team parlay pays 6:1. That is, each bet in the parlay is at -110. Using a parlay of moneyline favorites, the calculation factors in those numbers. So instead of -110, -110, and -110, you would be at say -250, -350, and -1000. The result is significantly less than 6:1, but still a solid ROI.
For a true gamble, you could bet the underdogs on a moneyline parlay for a payout well over 6:1. Isn’t this how Kelly in Vegas got her start? Look at her now!
There is money to be made by understanding ROI in its importance in your bankroll management.
Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. New t-shirt designs available now in our eBay store... https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllc. Keep checking back!
#ShootersShoot
@moneylineshow
No comments:
Post a Comment