Every year after NFL and College Football is over, and college basketball is winding down, baseball season is upon us. It isn’t long until MLB is the only major sport to bet on. That can cause some frustration to many sports bettors, as they have a long summer without the other major sports playing several games each day.
Baseball should be an exciting time for sports betttors. After all, there are 162 games for each team in the regular season. It can be a lot to keep up on how teams are playing, injury reports, etc. but it can be well worth your while. It is important to realize that just because a team or player was dominant last season, doesn’t mean they will be this season.
Long ago, a former pitcher told us that the entire game revolves around the pitcher. This is why pitchers are listed when odds are placed. This pitcher once said that one of his coaches went out to the mound to talk to him in the middle of an inning. The coach said, “when I leave the mound, you count to 100 before you make your next pitch”. The 100 count seemed to take forever, but the point was made. Nothing happens without the pitcher and their importance cannot be underestimated in the game, especially from a betting standpoint.
We feel that moneylines are important to utilize in MLB. The reason is primarily that late in games, when teams are up multiple runs, they will gladly give up a run to get an out. They only care about winning, not covering (this will be its own article).
In addition, we feel that one of the best bets to utilize in baseball is the over/under. The best course of action is to evaluate the ERA of the starting pitchers. Keep in mind that ERA is over a 9 inning game, and most of the time pitchers don’t pitch a full 9 innnings. This is why it is also important to know the bullpen pitchers, including set up guys and closers. You should also know the batting lineup of the teams... to see if there are more right or left handed hitters. This will play into which reliever is chosen.
It also makes sense to set parameters, as a starting point, for games of interest. For example, on OVER bets, looking at the starting pitchers’ ERAs compared to the total. If they are, say, >1 over the total, perhaps the over is the play. Or, on UNDER bets, maybe your parameters are the starting pitchers’ ERAs <1.25 under the total. Again, these are starting points, and can be adjusted to risk tolerance, team play, injuries, etc.
FInally, one last piece of advice. Consider waiting until the end of April to start with these types of bets. This will allow starting pitchers to have a handful of starts, and will have an ERA that you can make decisions from.
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