Sportsbooks have a fairly simple model when it comes to making money on a single outcome event: get 50% of the money on each side, return 90% profit to the winners, keep 100% from the losers, net 10% (the juice). In a vacuum that is the way it works. Except when it doesn’t.
So what would make a book turn away from their standard 10% model? Well, the answer can be complex. Let’s look at some examples.
First, it may come down to how a book manager “feels” about a game. While the manager might feel that an outcome will go a certain way, he won’t “bet the house” (pun intended) on any event. Instead, he might “shade” a certain way. That is, instead of trying to get 50/50 action to net 10%, the book manager might shade 55/45 in favor of the way he thinks the outcome will go. If he is right, he has added leverage to the net profit. If he is wrong, he has mathematically broken even on the event (very close, actually).
The second reason a book might turn away from their standard has to do with other action. For example, a book manager might be looking at how a particular outcome will alter the book’s parlays, teasers, season win total, futures bets, etc. Doing this will essentially lead to a hedge by the book manager. While they don’t want to get taken to the cleaners on any one event, they will try to limit losses and maximize profits. The later in a season it is, the more likely this will happen.
Hopefully you keep this in mind the next time you are trying to figure out why a line at a particular book doesn’t seem right compared to others. Remember, a half point or even a full point can swing millions in this business.
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