Professional bettors bet numbers, not teams. No matter how many times we hear this, it still rings true. But why do we need a constant reminder and why the distinction of saying “professional” bettors? Why not just say “sports bettors”?
Experience in the business will teach you that a team is never as good as they looked last game, nor are they as bad as they looked last game. A team may look fantastic one week, and lay an egg the next. But to the professionals, they only care about the number. They don’t see a team name, a player, or a coach. They see the number.
How does this number shape the way a professional bettor looks at a game? The answer lies in power rankings. If you look at websites like ESPN, etc you can find power rankings based on what a handful of analysts think, or worse, what fan bases think. This is not what we are talking about.
Power rankings is a list of how teams rank, in order, combining things like offense, defense, efficiency, 3rd down conversions, takeaways, rebounds, FG%, bullpen ERA, etc. The list begins every season and changes frequently. Professional bettors have their own list and watch as many games as they can. Then, they update the list frequently based upon statistics, injuries, etc. They then compare this list with the lines posted for games. This is where the “betting numbers” part comes in to play. Have you ever seen a top 25 team playing at home be an underdog to an unranked team? The reason is because the sports books also have their own rankings, and often times it doesn’t matter what the AP rankings are, etc.
Ultimately, fine tuning this list frequently is what allows a professional bettor to take advantage of mis-priced lines. You can find the bet count percentage from most books. If something doesn’t make sense to you, such as the top 25 team be a home dog to an unranked team, you’ll know the dog has a higher power ranking to the books and the pros. And often times there will be heavy action on the dog, driving the line further.
If you haven’t had experience making a list, start with an upcoming season by doing research. One of the best that we have seen is Phil Steele’s magazine. He publishes his power rankings in his annual college football magazine each season prior to the start. As a long time reader, I can tell you that Phil is usually very accurate in these rankings. As the weeks go on, update the rankings based upon what you observe, what stats you feel are important, etc. The professionals didn’t become professionals in one season. This takes years to fine tune, and one season carries over to the next. This skill will serve you well if you plan to be in this business for the long run.
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