Strategy & Theory: Inclement Weather

There are several variables to consider when looking at placing action.  Then teams, coaches, power rankings compared to the lines, and so on.  One of the things that is often not accounted for enough is weather, specifically wind and rain.  It is clear the weather doesn’t have an impact on basketball and hockey.  Baseball and football, on the other hand, are mostly played outdoors.  The difficult part about analyzing the impact of weather on a baseball game is two fold.  First, wind can change direction over the course of a three hour game.  A fly ball with the wind in the first inning may be aided into a home run.  The same fly ball against the wind in the seventh inning may be an out in the middle of the infield.  Second, while rain can impact a baseball game, often times if it there is too much of it, the game is suspended.  For these reasons, we tend to stay away from baseball games with inclement weather.

Football, however, can have entire game plans change because of the weather.  The most notable way this can change betting lines is on the over/under, typically driving the number down. Both high wind and rain will favor an offense that can run the ball well and favor a defense that can stop the run because the passing game is severely limited with down the field attempts.  

There are other reasons why the wind and rain can impact football.  Field goal attempts become more difficult in swirling wind.  Now that extra points have been moved back, they too become more difficult.  Both of these play well towards the under.

Become familiar with weather patterns and their impacts on these games.  Think about which stadiums and cities can have this kind of impact as well.  For example, Seattle gets a lot of rain.  Cleveland is right off a lake.  Chicago is known as the Windy City for a reason.  Sports bettors should use some down time to get an education in weather.  Basically, they should become junior meteorologists.  Check the 10 and 7 day forecasts for the cities that are impacted the most by inclement weather.  Understanding the weather patterns progressing over time can give you a huge advantage on the early lines before the forecast becomes a noteworthy item on game day.  Typically, if the wind is blowing > 10mph, it will have an impact on the game.  Also, rain and thunderstorms as well.  Take advantage of this often overlooked information.  A little research and education can go a long way to increasing your bankroll.

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