PSA: Learn from Losses

When growing up, it was common to get advice from parents, coaches, teachers, etc about learning from failures.  It could have been a bad decision you made, a tough loss on the field, or a bad test grade.  You rarely hear about people learning from wins.  Because it is the losses that are supposed to make us better.

The same holds true in sports betting.  Often times, when winning, sports bettors don’t evaluate their plays or what they should have seen before a game started.  The only thing that matters is the bankroll increasing. While it is important to try to figure out if the wins are based upon sound research, timing a line movement, or other, it is equally important to realize if the win was because of a bad call in a game, a team not scoring from the 1-yard line as the game clock ran out, or any one of a number of ways that you can win (or lose) based upon a specific event in a game.

The losses, however, are where a sports bettor can grow the most.  Losses help make sports gamblers better at research, bankroll management, market timing, shopping for the best line, etc.  It is paramount to review both losses and wins for your own personal betterment.  

Finally, how you react to losses can help or hinder you.  For example, if your immediate response to a loss is to begin chasing, that is a sign of bad things to come.  Placing hard earned money on a game without research will ultimately lead to the books getting more of your bankroll.  As Todd Fuhrman once said, “If you trust your long term edge, don’t fall victim to short term variance”.

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PSA: Sports Betting Markets are Truth Serum

A while back, we posted a story about how there was a significant change in the Ohio State title odds preseason because of an injury.  Braxton Miller suffered what appeared to be a mild injury at practice.  There was a general level of concern because he was the starting QB and had won numerous awards in previous years.  

Something interesting happened in the betting futures market approximately 30 minutes prior to the update from the medical staff:  The Ohio State futures odds plummeted. What most saw as a mild injury turned into being lost for the season.  

Making a market for events is key for book makers.  Another example of this happened in the 2020 US Presidential election.  For several months you could find Biden -200 or Trump +165 etc.  But as the states started reporting the night of the election, there was a seismic shift.  Trump was all the way to -475 and Biden was +300.  Again, the books were making a market, and the bettors were moving it based on what they knew.  News outlets even began to discuss live odds on the election.  There was over $500M bet on the outcome.  This is evidence how gambling (and even in-game) is becoming more prevalent in society.

While both of these events ended up having huge swings, and based upon earlier information, wild endings, there is a lesson to be learned here.  Remember that a casual fan doesn’t make their mortgage payment based on the outcomes of sporting events (or politics).  Professionals do.  If you ever want to know what is likely to happen based on information that may not be public, ask someone who makes their living trading off that information.  The betting markets are truth serum.

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System Betting: NHL Home Dogs ATS

As we continue to explore profitable system bets, today we are looking into finding an edge for NHL Home dogs ATS (+1.5 goals).  This is a system that was brought to our attention years ago, so we decided to look into what history tells us.

There are several advantages to home teams in the NHL that don’t translate from other sports.  For example, the home team gets to make the last substitution, which allows them to see what their opponent is doing first.  Also, the home team gets to put their stick down last in a face off, which statistically gives a slight edge to the home team.

Over a recent sample period, in the last 315 games in which the home team was the underdog, taking the 1.5 goals as won 209 of the 315 games for 66.3% of the time.  This is a remarkably high percentage that can’t be ignored.  

One thing to keep in mind is the juice.  These games are typically not standard juice.  Often times you will need to lay extra juice (ie -180 for example).  So, keeping this in mind, it would make the most sense to stay with the games that are closer to -110 with taking the 1.5 goals.

It is also interesting to note that ALL dogs getting 1.5 goals has recently won 65.1% of the time, and away dogs getting 1.5 goals has won 64.5% of the time.  Again, keep the juice in mind when you are looking to play these systems.

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Bank Roll Management: Time Value of Money

The Time Value of Money is a mathematical concept that states, in general, that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar tomorrow (or any date in the future).  So, how is this relevant to placing action with your hard earned dollars?  The concept of Time Value of Money applies to futures bets.

Let’s say you are looking at a season win totals number before a season starts.  Typically, a football season lasts 5 months or so.  Baseball is roughly 7 months.  A basketball or hockey season is approximately 8 months.  There is only so much money in your bankroll.  Applying the Time Value of Money concept would state that you are better off placing action on shorter term outcomes (such as single games) than you are waiting for an entire season to end to collect your winnings.

The concept is that placing action on a single outcome that ends in a significantly shorter time frame will allow you to reinvest those proceeds in future endeavors.  Does that mean you should never place futures action?  Not necessarily.  There are still places to consider placing this type of action.  The best illustration is on plus-money payouts.  

If you can find a season future that offers plus money (ie +140, etc) then you are being compensated for the Time Value of Money.  In the reference above, you are earning a 40% return for the 4-8 months of waiting for the payout.  This can help offset the loss of reinvested future earnings by taking single games at -110.  So, the next time you are looking at season futures, remember how it can impact your earnings potential by having your funds tied up for the duration of a season.

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Strategy & Theory: Teasers and Ifs

Sports bettors typically look at anything outside of flat bets and parlays as exotic type bets.  While these are the two most common bet types, that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t know how to (properly) utilize other types of wagers.  

We think that there are a couple of other types of plays that make sense to utilize in the right situations.  The first type of bet is known as a teaser.  Basically, a teaser is a type of parlay that allows you to modify the points in the direction of your choosing for each leg of the bet.  For example, let’s say you had a 7 point teaser.  You like Team A -7 1/2 points and Team B +6 points.  Utilizing this type of wager makes your bet now Team A -1/2 point and Team B +13 points.  Sounds great, right?  For this additional swing in points, the book pays out well less than standard parlays without the teaser feature.  So when should we utilize this type of wager?  We think it is best when you are looking to get multiplied odds with less risk.   Not every parlay needs to pay 2.6:1 or 6:1.  Some can pay less if they are multiplying your payout by a factor.  Also, assuming utilization of a standard bet size, this also creates less downside risk to your bankroll.

The second exotic we are going to look at is IF bets.  This is where you place action on anywhere from 2 - 7 teams, typically.  The bets are placed in an order, and if your first bet wins, the standard bet size goes to the second game.  If that bet wins, the standard bet size goes to the next game, and so on until all bets are completed or one bet loses.  Notice that this is not a parlay.  The second bet gets placed IF the first bet wins.  With this type of wager, you typically need to win the first two games to come out ahead.  Assuming a $100 standard bet size, you would win $91 (-110) for each consecutive win, with only risking your initial $100.  So how should these be played?  The best way to pick your order is by confidence, not chronological.  The time a game starts has no bearing on the order you pick it.  You can’t win the next bet until you win the first bet.  

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