As we continue to explore profitable system bets, today we are looking into finding an edge for NHL Home dogs ATS (+1.5 goals). This is a system that was brought to our attention years ago, so we decided to look into what history tells us.
There are several advantages to home teams in the NHL that don’t translate from other sports. For example, the home team gets to make the last substitution, which allows them to see what their opponent is doing first. Also, the home team gets to put their stick down last in a face off, which statistically gives a slight edge to the home team.
Over a recent sample period, in the last 315 games in which the home team was the underdog, taking the 1.5 goals as won 209 of the 315 games for 66.3% of the time. This is a remarkably high percentage that can’t be ignored.
One thing to keep in mind is the juice. These games are typically not standard juice. Often times you will need to lay extra juice (ie -180 for example). So, keeping this in mind, it would make the most sense to stay with the games that are closer to -110 with taking the 1.5 goals.
It is also interesting to note that ALL dogs getting 1.5 goals has recently won 65.1% of the time, and away dogs getting 1.5 goals has won 64.5% of the time. Again, keep the juice in mind when you are looking to play these systems.
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