A while back, we posted a story about how there was a significant change in the Ohio State title odds preseason because of an injury. Braxton Miller suffered what appeared to be a mild injury at practice. There was a general level of concern because he was the starting QB and had won numerous awards in previous years.
Something interesting happened in the betting futures market approximately 30 minutes prior to the update from the medical staff: The Ohio State futures odds plummeted. What most saw as a mild injury turned into being lost for the season.
Making a market for events is key for book makers. Another example of this happened in the 2020 US Presidential election. For several months you could find Biden -200 or Trump +165 etc. But as the states started reporting the night of the election, there was a seismic shift. Trump was all the way to -475 and Biden was +300. Again, the books were making a market, and the bettors were moving it based on what they knew. News outlets even began to discuss live odds on the election. There was over $500M bet on the outcome. This is evidence how gambling (and even in-game) is becoming more prevalent in society.
While both of these events ended up having huge swings, and based upon earlier information, wild endings, there is a lesson to be learned here. Remember that a casual fan doesn’t make their mortgage payment based on the outcomes of sporting events (or politics). Professionals do. If you ever want to know what is likely to happen based on information that may not be public, ask someone who makes their living trading off that information. The betting markets are truth serum.
Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ... https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back!
#ShootersShoot
@moneylineshow
No comments:
Post a Comment