Traits of Successful Sports Bettors

You may have heard about books that are tailored to looking into the lives of successful people to see things that they do that help them achieve the level they are at.  These books can apply to specific people such as Bill Gates or Warren Buffett.  Some are more general, such as “Seven habits of highly effective people” or tips from high performing sales individuals.

Does the same apply to highly successful sports bettors?  We think so.  After hearing from some long time bettors and gathering information, here are the common traits that some of the most successful bettors have in common.

Patience: knowing when to lay off a bet and when to make one takes years to understand.  The best bettors know that there are always more bets later in the day, or tomorrow, or next week.

Discipline: the entire premise of growing your bankroll is founded on this principle.  Being consistent with betting size and not chasing losses will help you be successful over the long run.

Statistics: understanding probability, and being able to calculate it quickly, will pay huge dividends in this business.  Some use computer programs, some use spreadsheets, but the best sports bettors can do a lot of these calculations in their head.  Understanding the math behind the odds will help you in the long run.  

Reading comprehension: being able to decipher large amounts of information in short amounts of time will be a huge asset.  Equally as important is knowing what information is to be disregarded.  There are several ways to get this information, whether from mainstream media or beat writers.  Knowing what information to use and what not to use, and the speed at which you do it, will add substantial value to your bankroll over time.

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Futures Value Analysis

Prior to the start of the shortened 2020 MLB season, there were several enticing futures available.  With fewer games to be played (60) it allows for a team that might not be true contenders for 162 games to make the playoffs.  One futures option was the Tampa Bay Rays at +2000.  With their starting rotation of pitchers and enough hitters in the line up, they had the potential to compete with anyone.

Over the course of the regular season, the Rays went 40-20.  This led them into the playoffs, but now they were going to face other playoff teams consistently.  While they made it to the World Series, losing in 6 games to the LA Dodgers, there was a lot of value on a +2000 ticket all along the way.

When analyzing futures value, we need to look at the path to the ticket cashing.  It was reasonable to assume that, barring injuries, the Rays would make the playoffs.  However, the first round of the playoffs was only 3 games.  The next round was only 5 games.  The point is, in a shortened series, it provides more opportunities for a lesser quality team to win.  Starting pitching, as we’ve discussed, is crucial to MLB postseason success.  If your team doesn’t have their best pitchers available for these shortened series games, it provides more reliance on the hitters. 

The reason we mention this is because ultimately it comes down to value, and even being able to sell your ticket when timing allows.  Taking a favorite such as the Yankees or Dodgers at +275 doesn’t make a lot of sense or have real value when the structure of the postseason schedule allows for greater variance.  Finding a team with higher odds, such as +2000, allows for locking in a profit when there is greater variance to a series.

Think about this the next time you are looking at futures.  When you consider a schedule, injuries, etc, +250 - +1000 doesn’t make a lot of sense.  This applies to all sports, especially when there are more variances that are out of control.  In short, get paid for the risk you take with these futures tickets and have a way to sell when the timing is right.

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Strategy & Theory: Using Efficiency in Basketball

In recent years, more and more sports bettors have turned to detailed statistics to help them decide what action to place.  One of the most prevalent uses of this is in basketball.  You may have heard of efficiency ratios.  They can be both offense and defense.  These quantitative calculations can help predict the final score of a game, which gives you a play on the spread, moneyline, and total.  It also works for both college and NBA.

To illustrate this, we need to look at possessions per game (PPG) as well as points per possession (PPP).  Let’s assume Team A averages 80 PPG and Team B averages 70 PPG.  The average of these is 75 PPG, which we will use for each team.

Next, Team A averages 1.7 PPP on offense, and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  Team B averages 1.4 PPP on offense and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  The calculation we perform to find the average associated score is as follows:

Team A: (1.7 + 1.3)/2 = 1.5 PPP * 75 PPG = 112.5

Team B: (1.4 + 1.3)/2 = 1.35 PPP *75 PPG = 101.25

It is important to note that we are averaging Team A’s offensive efficiency with Team B’s defensive efficiency, and vice versa, and multiplying these by the PPG.  Using this analysis, you can determine a play on both the spread and total for each game.  

Application:  a few things to keep in mind... Always check the injury report, not just for actual injuries, but also game time decisions, rest, etc.  It is always best to wait until there is a sample size of games after the start of a new season.  This will allow time for new players, coaches, systems, etc to have enough data to support using this theory of score predicting.  Finally, this should work better the longer a season goes on as there is more data available, which based upon the number of games, etc, the NBA will provide more opportunities here than the college game.

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Strategy & Theory: Roll Moneylines vs Futures

Placing a futures ticket can lead to excitement.  Typically they are placed well in advance of the event that ultimately pays out.  It gives a chance too root for a team for an entire season, or sell a ticket to lock in a profit before the final event happens.

Moneylines are simply placing action on a team to win.  The spread doesn’t come into play.  You are just looking for a win.  Depending on how much of a favorite or and underdog the team is will determine your payout.

These two types of bets rarely get viewed together.  That is, many times sports bettors looking to place action on a team for something like the Super Bowl or March Madness Championship, only look at the futures market.  But, as we will illustrate below, that may not always be the most profitable option.

Let’s say we are looking at the College Football Playoff (this theory applies to various sports and situations, but we’ll focus on this one).  The following options are available in the futures market: Alabama: 2:1; Clemson: 3:1; Ohio State: 4:1; and USC: 8:1.

If you were willing to bet on USC in this case, the payout is 8:1.  But they need to win both of the next two games for your ticket to cash.  Let’s say they play Alabama in their first game.  USC is +350.  Let’s also assume that when they play the winner of Clemson/Ohio St that they would be +300 on the moneyline.  If you bet $100 on USC +350 vs Alabama and they win, you now have a total of $450 ($350 win plus $100 initial).  Now, if you roll that $450 into the Championship game at +300, you would get $1,350 profit.  Combining this with your $450 you get back means you have a total of $1,800.  Less your initial $100 leaves $1,700.  That is 17:1 vs. the future ticket at 8:1.  

This theory can also work for favorites, even at -110, etc.  Rolling moneyline winnings will usually lead to higher net profit than a futures ticket.  Keep this theory in mind the next time you are looking to place a futures ticket on a team.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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