Strategy & Theory: Using Efficiency in Basketball

In recent years, more and more sports bettors have turned to detailed statistics to help them decide what action to place.  One of the most prevalent uses of this is in basketball.  You may have heard of efficiency ratios.  They can be both offense and defense.  These quantitative calculations can help predict the final score of a game, which gives you a play on the spread, moneyline, and total.  It also works for both college and NBA.

To illustrate this, we need to look at possessions per game (PPG) as well as points per possession (PPP).  Let’s assume Team A averages 80 PPG and Team B averages 70 PPG.  The average of these is 75 PPG, which we will use for each team.

Next, Team A averages 1.7 PPP on offense, and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  Team B averages 1.4 PPP on offense and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  The calculation we perform to find the average associated score is as follows:

Team A: (1.7 + 1.3)/2 = 1.5 PPP * 75 PPG = 112.5

Team B: (1.4 + 1.3)/2 = 1.35 PPP *75 PPG = 101.25

It is important to note that we are averaging Team A’s offensive efficiency with Team B’s defensive efficiency, and vice versa, and multiplying these by the PPG.  Using this analysis, you can determine a play on both the spread and total for each game.  

Application:  a few things to keep in mind... Always check the injury report, not just for actual injuries, but also game time decisions, rest, etc.  It is always best to wait until there is a sample size of games after the start of a new season.  This will allow time for new players, coaches, systems, etc to have enough data to support using this theory of score predicting.  Finally, this should work better the longer a season goes on as there is more data available, which based upon the number of games, etc, the NBA will provide more opportunities here than the college game.

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