Monday, January 4, 2021

Strategy & Theory: Roll Moneylines vs Futures

Placing a futures ticket can lead to excitement.  Typically they are placed well in advance of the event that ultimately pays out.  It gives a chance too root for a team for an entire season, or sell a ticket to lock in a profit before the final event happens.


Moneylines are simply placing action on a team to win.  The spread doesn’t come into play.  You are just looking for a win.  Depending on how much of a favorite or and underdog the team is will determine your payout.


These two types of bets rarely get viewed together.  That is, many times sports bettors looking to place action on a team for something like the Super Bowl or March Madness Championship, only look at the futures market.  But, as we will illustrate below, that may not always be the most profitable option.


Let’s say we are looking at the College Football Playoff (this theory applies to various sports and situations, but we’ll focus on this one).  The following options are available in the futures market: Alabama: 2:1; Clemson: 3:1; Ohio State: 4:1; and USC: 8:1.


If you were willing to bet on USC in this case, the payout is 8:1.  But they need to win both of the next two games for your ticket to cash.  Let’s say they play Alabama in their first game.  USC is +350.  Let’s also assume that when they play the winner of Clemson/Ohio St that they would be +300 on the moneyline.  If you bet $100 on USC +350 vs Alabama and they win, you now have a total of $450 ($350 win plus $100 initial).  Now, if you roll that $450 into the Championship game at +300, you would get $1,350 profit.  Combining this with your $450 you get back means you have a total of $1,800.  Less your initial $100 leaves $1,700.  That is 17:1 vs. the future ticket at 8:1.  


This theory can also work for favorites, even at -110, etc.  Rolling moneyline winnings will usually lead to higher net profit than a futures ticket.  Keep this theory in mind the next time you are looking to place a futures ticket on a team.


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