Defining Value

How do we define value?  For poker players, it comes down to things like expected results compared to expected pricing.  If a player is making a decision based on their hand and the board, they consider things like how much the bet is (or to make), how much is in the pot, their hand compared to the board (and if they need help), etc.  These are called implied odds and pot odds.  Ultimately, they are calculating the odds compared to the situation and trying to determine if the odds are in their favor or not.  Essentially, they are calculating if they have value compared to the situation in front of them.

The same is true for sports bettors.  They look at the current pricing and the game’s situation and make the same type of determination.  This is relatively easy for ATS with standard juice at -110, because they know the payoff, they just need to calculate the line or even over/under.

Using a moneyline, either for the favorite or dog, is where the pricing comes into play.  If a moneyline is set at -125, but you have it calculated at -160, you have value.  Similarly, if a line is +220 and you have it calculated at +180, you have value.

Poker players know that defining value in every situation allows them to be more profitable in the long run.  In the short run, things happen that can alter it, such as getting 2-outed on the river.  But over the course of several sessions, they know that defining value consistently will lead to profitability.  The same is true for sports bettors.  Define value with every bet you make and it will help your bankroll over time.

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