Strategy & Theory: Know What Needs to Happen

How often do we see the last week of the NFL season be the determining factor as to who gets a top seed, who is playing for a home game, and who even makes the playoffs.  Clearly the players and coaches know this.  And so do the books.

One strategy that has been important to utilize has been knowing what needs to happen for each team on that final week.  For example, if a team is playing for a top seed or even to make the playoffs, they will be highly motivated to win their final regular season game.  Notice we didn’t say cover their final regular season game.  Often times the books will post larger than normal lines on the favorites in these situations.  They know the public is looking to back the favorite in a “must-win” situation.  Don’t fall victim to this trap.  

Identify these teams after the close of the 2nd to last regular season game and get ready to back them... on the moneyline.  If the Packers are playing for the top seed in the NFC, and only need a win, they don’t care about covering the 11-point spread.  They only care about winning.

Another idea to keep in mind is to know the schedule of games in chronological order.  You could have two teams playing in the final week where one is playing for home field and the other is playing to just get in.  If Team B can only make the playoffs if Team A loses, and Team A plays at 1:00 and loses, get ready to fire away on Team B before their 4:00 start.  Knowing each scenario is important.  And always take monelylines.  When their playoffs, home-field, and bye weeks are on the line, these teams want to win and stay healthy.  That’s it.

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Bankroll Management: Bet to Risk vs. Bet to Win

When you go to place your wager at the window, you have two primary options: Bet to Risk and Bet to Win.  While it isn’t a difficult concept to understand, how you apply it to your bankroll can make a huge impact.  Let’s look at both options.

Bet to Risk is simply placing a bet and having the juice (or plus money payout) applied to the amount of money bet.  Let’s say you take a moneyline bet on the Lakers at -150.  You bet $100.  If the Lakers win, you win $66.67 and get your initial $100 back for a total of $166.67.  Of course if the Lakers lose, you get $0.

Bet to Win means that you are targeting an amount you want to win on the bet, and let the current odds dictate how much you have to risk.  In the example above, if you wanted to win $100 on the Lakers at the same odds, you would need to risk $150 at -150 odds. 

Because sports bettors have both options, you are in control of which type you choose.  But, it is important to keep in mind that while you have control, knowing what situations to use each is critical.  

Using Bet to Win can be helpful if you are trying to target a specific dollar amount to increase your bankroll to in a short time period.  You simply pick your action and go with this option.  Using Bet to Risk is the option most professionals use because it allows them to keep better bankroll management with standard bet sizing.  While the standard juice, or even larger moneyline odds will dictate the amount won, using Bet to Risk will keep your bankroll safer because essentially you won’t be chasing profits with longer odds.

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Strategy & Theory: Statistics Behind Scheduling

Taking all variables into account is key when determining what games to place action on, whether against the spread or over/under.  Other variables come into play, such as weather, referees and their tendencies, etc.  This article will be discussing something else that is equally as important: Scheduling.

Knowing when a team played last, especially coming off a bye week, compared to another team is important for rest purposes.  Additionally, knowing if a team has a “trap” game or even could be looking ahead is important.  Below, we discuss how the variable of scheduling impacts various sports.

NFL: Bye weeks are key in the NFL.  Since 2003, favorites coming off a bye week are 59% ATS.  Additionally, road favorites are 69% ATS.  That is an astonishing rate for such a long period.

College Football: home favorites off a bye are 54.7% ATS

MLB:  Favored teams in the second game of a double header win straight up 62% since 2005.

NBA: During the playoffs, in games 6 & 7, the under is 57.6%.  A longer series and less rest, along with more defense means less shots, and less shots made.

College Basketball: Conference Tournament games with both teams playing the day before have 54.7% win rate on unders.

NHL: Teams with three days off vs teams in game 2 of consecutive days playing are 59% winners since 2005.

Review these statistics as you look over the slate of games.  It may not be a sole reason to place action, but it may help check off more boxes as a reason to make a wager.

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PSA: Popularity Polls vs. Power Rankings

We have stated several times in our posts about the importance of power rankings.  Using a true set of quantifiable data means a lot more than what team is trending or popular.  This can help or hinder your bankroll, depending on how you use them.

Popularity polls weigh previous results.  They are often done by fans, not sports bettors.  Teams that are popular, get more TV time, have the biggest stars, etc often do well.  Likely, the teams at the top aren’t as good as their ranking, nor are the teams at the bottom as bad as theirs.  

Power rankings are a predictive tool.  They use measurable statistics, accounting for several key variables that can include a lot of the information that the books use for setting and adjusting lines. 

A sports bettor only cares about making money going forward.  The popularity polls don’t help with that.  The power rankings do.  The popularity polls are for entertainment purposes only.  As you approach an upcoming slate of games, remember there is a reason the best sports bettors use power rankings.  Often times, it will be an immediate indication of a soft line, a total that is too high/low, or even knowing when to stay away from a game they would normally place action on.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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