How often do we see the last week of the NFL season be the determining factor as to who gets a top seed, who is playing for a home game, and who even makes the playoffs. Clearly the players and coaches know this. And so do the books.
One strategy that has been important to utilize has been knowing what needs to happen for each team on that final week. For example, if a team is playing for a top seed or even to make the playoffs, they will be highly motivated to win their final regular season game. Notice we didn’t say cover their final regular season game. Often times the books will post larger than normal lines on the favorites in these situations. They know the public is looking to back the favorite in a “must-win” situation. Don’t fall victim to this trap.
Identify these teams after the close of the 2nd to last regular season game and get ready to back them... on the moneyline. If the Packers are playing for the top seed in the NFC, and only need a win, they don’t care about covering the 11-point spread. They only care about winning.
Another idea to keep in mind is to know the schedule of games in chronological order. You could have two teams playing in the final week where one is playing for home field and the other is playing to just get in. If Team B can only make the playoffs if Team A loses, and Team A plays at 1:00 and loses, get ready to fire away on Team B before their 4:00 start. Knowing each scenario is important. And always take monelylines. When their playoffs, home-field, and bye weeks are on the line, these teams want to win and stay healthy. That’s it.
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