Monday, December 14, 2020

Strategy & Theory: Statistics Behind Scheduling

Taking all variables into account is key when determining what games to place action on, whether against the spread or over/under.  Other variables come into play, such as weather, referees and their tendencies, etc.  This article will be discussing something else that is equally as important: Scheduling.


Knowing when a team played last, especially coming off a bye week, compared to another team is important for rest purposes.  Additionally, knowing if a team has a “trap” game or even could be looking ahead is important.  Below, we discuss how the variable of scheduling impacts various sports.


NFL: Bye weeks are key in the NFL.  Since 2003, favorites coming off a bye week are 59% ATS.  Additionally, road favorites are 69% ATS.  That is an astonishing rate for such a long period.


College Football: home favorites off a bye are 54.7% ATS


MLB:  Favored teams in the second game of a double header win straight up 62% since 2005.


NBA: During the playoffs, in games 6 & 7, the under is 57.6%.  A longer series and less rest, along with more defense means less shots, and less shots made.


College Basketball: Conference Tournament games with both teams playing the day before have 54.7% win rate on unders.


NHL: Teams with three days off vs teams in game 2 of consecutive days playing are 59% winners since 2005.


Review these statistics as you look over the slate of games.  It may not be a sole reason to place action, but it may help check off more boxes as a reason to make a wager.


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