Expected Value

A predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence.  That is the definition of expected value.  So why does that matter?  Because we can use it to help determine an advantage in sports betting.

This industry, as we’ve stated, is a numbers game.  When looking at all of the possible outcomes of a sporting event, there are only a few true variables.  Let’s say that we are interested in placing action on a team.  We calculate that the probability of a cover is 60%.  That alone tells us the expected value (EV) is worth the action.  Of course you would take anything over 50%.  Or 52.38%.

But how else can we use EV to turn profits?  One way is in-game action.  If possible, calculate the live odds given the scenarios before you.  While there are a lot of variables to consider for in-game betting, being able to assign actual value and compare it to the numbers the book offers can add value to your bankroll.  These numbers change frequently, so being familiar with teams and scenarios is key.

Another way to use EV is for parlays.  While we don’t typically consider parlays ATS or O/U (we do on moneylines), being able to calculate game odds and EV can enable you to search the board for the best scenarios to match.  Using this strategy of EV can enable you to enhance your bankroll.

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