PSA: Think Through Drastic Changes

Every once in a great while, there are events that can happen to a game that can greatly alter how it should be bet.  We are talking about extreme circumstances.  Their impact, and often timing, can cause the books and bettors alike to have snap reactions and not think through the new information available.

In November 2007, the Steelers and Dolphins played in a game in which the amount of rain was horrendous.  The game was in Pittsburgh on a Monday night.  The over/under was set at 38.  The massive rainfall that hit Pittsburgh was no secret for days, yet the line didn’t come down significantly.  The result?  Pittsburgh won 3-0 on a field goal with under one minute remaining.  While a total of 3 seems unlikely to predict, based on the amount of rain, it was easy to see the under was the play.

In August 2019, the Raiders and Packers played a preseason game in Canada on a CFL field in which the field was reduced to 80 yards due to holes where the goal posts usually are being unsafe for the players.  The over/under on this game was set at 40.  Thinking this through, a team needs a shorter distance for a touchdown and can get in field goal range much easier.  The result?  The over cashed.

Our last example was a game played in November 2020 between Virginia Tech and Pitt.  Due to local ordinances, the players were required to wear masks DURING playing.  The over/under was initially set at 55 1/2 but dropped all the way down to 52 1/2 before kickoff.  Again, using common logic, we know that the defenses are typically more susceptible to pace and conditions than the offense is.  In this case, the mask mandate hindered the defenses ability to get oxygen thus making them more tired and worn out.  The result?  A total of 61 points as the over cashed with ease.

The next time specific conditions take over a game, don’t react, but respond.  You can often times take advantage of these situations because they are so rare and bookmakers and bettors haven’t thought through how they will impact the game.

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