Same Game, Different Lines

Have you ever wondered why the lines for a particular game differ slightly from book to book?  Knowing this information can help you be more informed and also help to know which side to lean to for a game.  First, a quick review of the process the books use to set lines:

For several years, the books in Vegas would get their opening lines from companies like Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC).  This group would set the lines and ultimately the books would use them in their shops.  The sports book manager has the ability to alter the lines for posting, and then the computers/book managers take over adjusting the lines based upon action placed as to not get too heavy on either side of a bet.

Another factor to consider is the popularity of a particular team.  A prime example of this is USC football.  Back in the Pete Carroll USC days, the books were taking excessive action on USC at any realistic line they could post.  They had quite the following with both professional sports bettors and the public.  When the books realized this, they adjusted their lines accordingly.  Word on the street was they were adding up to 3 points to the side and total for these games at the open, just to start hedging all of the USC action they would get.

When you are placing your action, check the lines at different books.  A half point can make the difference between a win and a loss.  Also understand if the book has a bias towards or against a certain team.  They may be adjusting the lines accordingly.

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Difference Between Fans vs. Pros

Fans and professional gamblers are different.  In fact, one of the first things that professional sports bettors do is drop any allegiance they have to a team.  The main reason for this is that it can cloud your judgement.  If you are a fan of a team, you often times don’t see how bad the bad is, or think the good is actually great.  This can lead to devastating losses to your bankroll.  Some sports bettors even take it as far as not placing any action on their favorite teams, whether ATS, O/U, or even totals.

Another distinction to be made between fans and pros is the fact that the pros make their mortgage payments based upon maximizing their bankroll.  Fans don’t.  This leads the pros to an entirely different level of research.  With that research, comes the need for information, and timing is of the essence.  

In the fall of 2013, as college football teams were preparing for their season, Ohio State was one of the favorites to win the National Championship.  In a practice leading up to the season opener, starting QB Braxton Miller sustained an injury during practice.  While it didn’t appear to be serious, he was sent for a medical evaluation as a precautionary measure.  While waiting on the test results, something very interesting happened in the futures market... Ohio State dropped to 50:1.  No announcement had been made about Miller’s status, but the pros and the books knew already.  Braxton Miller was done for the year.  Hours later OSU made the announcement that Miller’s season was in fact done.  

The reason for the story is this: fans of Ohio State waited on the press conference.  Professional sports bettors, and the books, got the information earlier and in another manner.  When your livelihood is on the line, information, and the timing of that information, means everything.  The next time someone asks you what you think about an injury to a star player, or where a coveted free agent is going, just ask a professional gambler.  They may have just placed action, and made their next mortgage payment, on it.

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Listed, Not Action

We’ve previously written about the importance of the starting pitcher in baseball.  Perhaps the only other positions in sports that can have a similar impact on a sporting event are the starting QB in football, a goalie in hockey, and maybe a point guard in basketball.  So it goes without saying that if you are looking to place action on a MLB game, knowing the starting pitcher, and even to a large extent the bullpen of that team, is paramount in making your decision.  As we’ve discussed, this pertains to the moneyline, the run line, and the total.

The next most important thing to keep in mind is that these starting pitchers get “scratched” or changed for various reasons.  Sometimes it is injury related.  Sometimes it is a “healthy scratch” which means the pitcher is getting a start off for rest or “load management”.  This can, and often does, happen the day of the game.

If this happens and you placed your bet with the designation of “action”, your bet is still live.  Action just means as long as the game is played, your bet will be placed.  If you placed your wager with “listed”, the pitcher(s) listed must start the game for the bet to be live.

If you think through all the scenarios (moneyline, run line, and total) you can see how a change to EITHER starting pitcher could, and probably should, make you second guess if you should place the action.  If nothing else, it would require more research on the change to validate your initial thought process and methodology.

Sports bettors typically look to take out as many variables as they can to focus on finding soft lines or an edge.  The idea of a pitcher being scratched after you’ve poured significant research into determining your bet, leads to our recommendation to only select “listed” for your wagers.  It is better to make sure the variables that led you to place your bet (ie the starting pitchers) are still in play rather than leave it to chance.  

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Do Not Bet List

DNBL.  If you are a sports bettor, you know what this stands for...  Do Not Bet List.  It is a list of teams that have dealt you loss after loss after bad beat after loss.  No matter good a line looks, they always find a way to turn it into a loss for you and a win for the books.

Most sports bettors keep a list of these teams each season.  It can be written down or even mentally.  But they know who these teams are.  While it is inevitable that you like to bet certain teams, it is important to keep track of how, or why, these teams always seem to lose for you.

One important piece of advice to keep in mind is that a team is never as good as they look in a dominating performance, nor as bad as when they get beaten soundly.  Try to keep a level head and find out the real reason why a team hands you loss after loss.  You should value the consistency of a team, whatever that consistency is.

After years of heartache and heartbreak we have realized that most teams experience high highs and low lows.   This has led us to our theory: Don’t let the same team beat you twice on any given day.   What we mean by this is, if a team is nearing DNBL status, don’t bet them ATS, moneyline, over/under, and parlay in any fashion.  One bet is fine.  But typically if you have a wrong read on a team, it can be wrong for multiple bets (such as ATS and totals).  If you have ever had a team lose you multiple bets on the same day, you know how frustrating this can be.  Keep a DNBL based on experience.  And don’t bet the same team twice on a given game.

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Strategy & Theory: MLB season thoughts

Every year after NFL and College Football is over, and college basketball is winding down, baseball season is upon us.  It isn’t long until MLB is the only major sport to bet on.  That can cause some frustration to many sports bettors, as they have a long summer without the other major sports playing several games each day.  

Baseball should be an exciting time for sports betttors.  After all, there are 162 games for each team in the regular season.  It can be a lot to keep up on how teams are playing, injury reports, etc. but it can be well worth your while.  It is important to realize that just because a team or player was dominant last season, doesn’t mean they will be this season.

Long ago, a former pitcher told us that the entire game revolves around the pitcher.  This is why pitchers are listed when odds are placed.  This pitcher once said that one of his coaches went out to the mound to talk to him in the middle of an inning.  The coach said, “when I leave the mound, you count to 100 before you make your next pitch”.  The 100 count seemed to take forever, but the point was made.  Nothing happens without the pitcher and their importance cannot be underestimated in the game, especially from a betting standpoint.

We feel that moneylines are important to utilize in MLB.  The reason is primarily that late in games, when teams are up multiple runs, they will gladly give up a run to get an out.  They only care about winning, not covering (this will be its own article).  

In addition, we feel that one of the best bets to utilize in baseball is the over/under.  The best course of action is to evaluate the ERA of the starting pitchers.  Keep in mind that ERA is over a 9 inning game, and most of the time pitchers don’t pitch a full 9 innnings.  This is why it is also important to know the bullpen pitchers, including set up guys and closers.  You should also know the batting lineup of the teams... to see if there are more right or left handed hitters.  This will play into which reliever is chosen.  

It also makes sense to set parameters, as a starting point, for games of interest.  For example, on OVER bets, looking at the starting pitchers’ ERAs compared to the total.  If they are, say, >1 over the total, perhaps the over is the play.  Or, on UNDER bets, maybe your parameters are the starting pitchers’ ERAs <1.25 under the total.  Again, these are starting points, and can be adjusted to risk tolerance, team play, injuries, etc.

FInally, one last piece of advice.  Consider waiting until the end of April to start with these types of bets.  This will allow starting pitchers to have a handful of starts, and will have an ERA that you can make decisions from.

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Bank Roll Management: Understanding Return on Investment

Return on Investment.  Commonly referred to as ROI, this is a financial term used to determine how much profit, on a percentage basis, you make on an investment.  Real estate investors use this to determine the annual cash return on their projects, and specifically use it to determine which new projects to invest in.  

The same theory is true for sports betting.  Most sports bettors will take or lay points (ATS) in games, or bet the over/under of a total for a particular event.   These gams are typically at 10% juice (-110).  But there are other opportunities to place action on the same events.  For the purposes of this article, we’ll look past things like parlays and teasers.  Instead, we will focus on the moneyline.  The moneyline is taking one team to win straight up.  For underdogs, the moneyline offers a return over 100%.  This is consummate with the risk involved in taking the dog.  The higher the point spread (football or basketball), the higher the return over 100%.

However taking the favorite is also an option.  This is the focus of our article.  When you take a favorite straight up, you will receive a return that is less than (significantly, in some cases) the standard 90% return from the ATS bets.  While some argue that the return isn’t that great (you can find these numbers at -120 through -2500 and beyond), an argument can be made that it is still a good ROI.  

To use and example, let’s say team A is -200 on the moneyline.  You like them to win, but not necessarily cover the spread.  A -200 line will return 50% to you in the event of a win.  So, if you bet $100, you will get a return of $50.  While this is significantly less than the $90 you would win if team A covers the spread, you only need them to win, not win by X amount of points.  Consideration should be given to this more often.  A ROI of 10% or 30% is better than losing 100% if team A wins but doesn’t cover the number.  

This strategy is becoming more prevalent.  There are companies that use this theory exclusively because they understand ROI and minimize catastrophic risk (losing the bet).  While not a guarantee, you should be able to hit a significantly higher percentage of wins using the moneyline.  In a previous article we mentioned that roughly 53% ATS is breakeven considering the juice.  You will need to hit a lot higher than 53% to make money to offset the inevitable losses, but it is possible to make money in the long run doing this, at a solid ROI.

One more note... A way to further leverage this return is to parlay moneylines.  The standard 3 team parlay pays 6:1.  That is, each bet in the parlay is at -110.  Using a parlay of moneyline favorites, the calculation factors in those numbers.  So instead of -110, -110, and -110, you would be at say -250, -350, and -1000.  The result is significantly less than 6:1, but still a solid ROI.

For a true gamble, you could bet the underdogs on a moneyline parlay for a payout well over 6:1.  Isn’t this how Kelly in Vegas got her start?  Look at her now!

There is money to be made by understanding ROI in its importance in your bankroll management.

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Make Your Enemy Your Friend

Theory and Strategy: Make your enemy your friend

People bet on sports for a variety of reasons.  Professional bettors make their mortgage payments with action on a wide variety of sports utilizing spread bets and over/unders etc. Recreational bettors like to have action, usually involving games of interest to them, whether it be games on tv or backing their favorite teams. 

Often times, these recreational bettors have teams they don’t like for one reason or another. Whereas professionals don’t care about teams (they bet numbers, not teams), the average Joe typically has a team they love to see lose. This is the basis for this article: Bet for the team you don’t like.  A little extra cash in your wallet helps ease the pain. 

There are several ways to illustrate this. We’ll look at football for illustration purposes, although it is important to know how this theory can change from sport to sport, and for what you’re “desired” outcome is. 

Let’s pick a team, say, the New England Patriots, for example. If you can’t stand seeing them win, or they always beat your favorite team when it matters most, place a futures Super Bowl bet on them. Or two. Maybe just the thought of this makes you cringe.  Obviously you want the _____________ (insert rival team here) to lose. In this case, the Patriots. There are typically two good times to do this, with a caveat third. The first is preseason. With a lot of uncertainty for a new season, this will be a good chance to get in before the odds get shorter. Remember, we want to maximize our return should they win it all.  The second good time to get in on a team is when they lose. The odds inevitably get longer with each loss. 

Finally, when a key player gets injured, the odds move and it may be time to place your action.  About five years ago, Ohio State was one of the top picks to win the national championship in the preseason. You could find them around 4:1. If you don’t like Ohio State, 4x your money may seem somewhat comforting to endure a Buckeye National Championship. In a summer practice, Big 10 offensive player of the year Braxton Miller got injured. When the report came out that he wouldn’t play that season, Ohio State went from 4:1 to 50:1. What’s more, they lost a game early in the year to Virginia Tech, who was dreadful the remainder of the year and the odds increased. We all know the result. Ohio State never looked back and routed Wisconsin for the Big 10 Championship, Beat top ranked Alabama, and housed Oregon to win it all. 

If you are anti-New England or anti-Ohio State or anti-__________(insert rival team here) consider placing action FOR them, not against. Your pocketbook will thank you should you have to watch them hoist the trophy. 

One other note: consider two identical tickets. That way when those teams make their run, you can put one for sale on PropSwap and lock in a profit while keeping the other for additional upside. 

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. New shirts available now at https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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