Strategy & Theory: Middling

We’ve often times explained different theories in sports betting in an attempt to help all take advantage of game, and even season, situations.  One little known, and seldom used, strategy is often referred to as Middling.

Middling is where a bettor places a bet on each side of a game, albeit ATS or Total, which allows for an opportunity to hit both bets.  Ultimately this allows the bettor to double the profits if the line or total falls in the “middle”.

If you bet Alabama at -5 1/2 against Ole MIss, and the line moves to Alabama -7 1/2 later, you now bet Ole Miss +7 1/2.  The “middle” is the 2 point difference.  In the event that Alabama wins by 7, you win both bets. Essentially, you are looking to double your profits, and worst case scenario, be down only the juice on one bet.  This falls into the category of low risk, high reward.

The key to doing this is to find a game in which there are large line movements to give your middle as much room to hit as possible.  So, where do we find these games where there is likely to be large line movement on either the spread or total?  We have found the best place is college football and college basketball.  And, more specifically, smaller conference games.  While all eyes are usually on the large conferences (Such as SEC Football, or ACC Basketball), the smaller conferences typically get large line movements because the money comes in heavy from the pros.  It can be typical to find a small conference game that moves by 4-8 points from the opening number to right before kickoff or tipoff.

When going through your bet sheet, remember to look at some of these lines, especially when there are teams that the pros hammer right from the opening line.  It may make sense to take a game early, wait for line movement, and take the opposite side right before the game starts, creating your middle.

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Key Player Point Differential

How may times have we seen an injury, or even a suspension, derail a line or total in this business?  Too many to count.  That is why we feel it makes a lot of sense to have a tool, or some kind of gauge, as to how certain players, or positions as is the case for this post, can impact a spread and total.  

It is worth noting that we feel the best approach when trying to quantify the difference between a player and their backup is to focus solely on significant positions to sports games.  For example, a quarterback in football moves the needle.  A punter typically does not.  Certain positions carry more weight in line setting than others.  It is also worth noting that this typically only applies to professional sports because there is typically known variables between a starter and a backup.  In college sports, there is often little history available to base a new line from.  That said, below are this list of positions in professional sports we feel carry the most weight and therefore should warrant some level of time in analyzing for those times that a player won’t play in the next game and a line has previously been set.  Being able to calculate the differential quickly with your analysis allows you to make a move on a line/total, one way or the other, before the line can get adjusted to new action.  

NFL: QB:  know the difference in “value” between a starter and a backup.  Typically this can range from a half point up to nine points.

NHL: Goalie: there can be a lot of information available here because starting goalies typically get a significant amount of time off during a season, meaning you have a lot of games to base the value of the backup.  

MLB: Starting Pitcher: this is a bit different because typically the next biggest variable for a starting pitcher is the bullpen behind them.  Still, it is important to know who the next likely starter is, whether in the starting rotation or someone out of the bullpen.

NBA: Point Guard:  typically everything runs through the point guard on offense.  This is key for looking at team scoring totals.  Also, keep close eye on assist/turnover ratio for the starter and backup.

Typically, when a player is ruled out, lines are taken off the board.  Often times the books don’t know how the public will respond to key positions being ruled out.  Keeping a running log of these positions and their point differential will allow you to take advantage of lines when they open back up after injuries are known.  This quantitative information will allow you to take advantage of a soft line.

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Advice from Sports Bettors to Sports Bettors

We recently ran across an article about advice to sports bettors from sports bettors.  Some of the advice was sound and fundamental, some was humorous.  We thought you would enjoy seeing a compilation of the wisdom (or otherwise).  They are broken down below into two categories: Serious and Not So Serious.  Here they are:

Serious:

• Separate your objectivity from fandom, don’t bet with the heart, but with the brain.
• Bet the number, not the team
• Bankroll Management.  Understand what you want to bet with prior to starting and then determine your unit size.
• Less is more (number of games bet)
• Focus entirely on making the best decisions.  Don’t worry about results.  Those will come in the long-run.
• Process over outcome
• Analyze your performance
• If you can afford to lose, you are betting.  If you can’t, you are gambling
• The number isn’t always the book telling you how they think the game will play out, rather how they think the public will perceive it.
• Shop lines from different books.  The number and juice matter.
• Don’t chase.  Bet with statistics, not emotion.
• Get the best number.  Watch the market.
• Keep emotions out of decision making.
• “They play the National Anthem everyday” (don’t chase in a panic)
• Don’t bet teams that are in your closet.
• The money won on a Super Bowl ticket and the money won on a Korean baseball game are both considered legal tender that can be spent at the same locations.
• Don’t let a string of losses change your discipline.

Not So Serious:

• Whatever you lose o n the 12:00 and 3:30 games, put that on a PAC12 over
• When you think all is lost, there is probably a women’s tennis match starting at 2am in China
• If you lose a bet, don’t be hard on yourself.  You can always double down on the next bet to make up for it.
• If your morning parlay did not hit, then double down on afternoon/evening games
• You’ll eventually hit a 10 team parlay.  Don’t give up.
• The Hawaii game is always there to bail you out.

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Multiple Books and Multiple Accounts

Previously, we have mentioned that it is important to shop around for the best lines.  A half point on a spread or total won’t always make a difference, but sometimes it does.  That small percentage of time can take move your win rate a few percentage points over the course of a year.  And those percentage points are real dollars.

With the technology advancements over the last several years, many books, both land and offshore, have mobile betting options.  We have been an advocate to have multiple accounts at different books/operators for the reason mentioned above: Not every book has the same lines.  We addressed this further in our post titled Same Game, Different Lines.

It is also important to note that it isn’t just the lines that can vary slightly from book-to-book, it can also be the juice.  You may find a spread you like at -7 at -110, but another book has -7 at -105.  Shopping around to find less juice will also increase your bankroll over time.

One final note: make sure your accounts are FDIC insured.  Many credible books are offering this to help protect bettors in the case of insolvency.

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Strategy & Theory: Adjusted Lines

Sports bettors have several options for games.  Examples include the line (ATS), total, 1st half, 2nd half, parlays, teasers, and so on.  While each and every day and set of games needs its own strategy for determining how to place action, there is one type of bet that often times goes overlooked.  This bet type is known as the Adjusted Line.

An Adjusted Line is simply a line that is offered that is adjusted by a given number and offers different payouts.  For example, if a football line is Team A -14 (-110) the adjusted line could be Team A -7 1/2 (-195) or Team A -20 1/2 (+225).  Basically, this is a way to take a team and they only have to “partially” cover for you to win, or if you think they will win by significantly larger than the spread, you can get plus-money on your payout.

Several years ago, specifically from 2008 - 2010, the Boise State football team was rolling.  During this stretch, they went 38-2 for their wins and losses.  But, they also went 26-12-1 ATS during this same stretch.  Some of these lines were very large, and the Broncos were still covering with ease.  The team was trying to get national attention for championship consideration, hence why they were putting up huge points in their games.

Betting the Broncos on the Adjusted Line would have been a substantial play.  While their ATS record was very profitable, using the Adjusted Line could have made a bettor substantially more because instead of getting the Broncos at -110, they could have often times laid another touchdown and gone to plus-money such as +220.  

Think about what a team is playing for, if the game means something to the players and especially the coach.  Think if they have a reason to run up the score.  Conversely, these lines can also be used if you think an underdog will win outright.  Taking a dog and laying some points will pay plus-money as well. You can even split your action with some on the Moneyline and some on the Adjusted Line.  Remember to look at the Adjusted Line the next time you think a line is set too low for a favorite or even if you think a dog will win straight up.  

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Getting the Best Line

One way that seasoned sports bettors use to determine if they got value on their ticket is to compare their number to the closing line.  The theory is, all of the information available and last minute action has come in right before the event begins.  If the bettor got in on the Redskins -7 the week leading up to their game, and the line went to Redskins -6 1/2, the bettor “left points on the table”.  Conversely, if the line went to Redskins -7 1/2, the bettor got a better number.  While this is certainly worth noting, even documenting to help make us better, at the end of the day it only matters what number is on your ticket.  Not what the line closed at.  Like Brent Musberger always says... “It’s all about cashing tickets”.  The closing number is irrelevant.

But, if the action was being considered at Redskins -7, wouldn’t it be nice to know what direction the line would likely move?  Thankfully, there are three sources we can use to help gauge which direction the line is likely to move.

First, and least reliable, is ticket count.  This is the number of actual bets made one way or another.  In theory the higher the ticket count as a percentage of total tickets for that bet, the more likely it is the line will move in the opposite direction.  The reason this is the least reliable is because the books don’t care about ticket count.  They care about dollars.  Which leads to the next source.

The second, and a more reliable way to gauge potential line movement, is dollar count.  At the end of the day, if a book is balanced 50/50 on a bet offering, they will net the juice.  They have a financial incentive to do this.  And their easiest and most effective way to do so is move the line in the opposite direction of the bets based on dollars to entice action on the other side.

Finally, technology has been able to assist us with providing insight as to how a line is likely to move.  SportsInsights has an algorithm that uses historical data, injury reports, ticket and dollar count, weather updates, etc to help gauge with high level of accuracy which direction the line is moving.  You can follow them on Twitter @linepredictor to get a feel for what they do.  They also offer the service through the SportsInsights website.  

Getting the best number will help you win more bets in the long run.  Make sure to use the resources available to you such as the SportsInsights app, which can show you the bet count and dollar count percentages.  Cashing tickets is what it’s all about.

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Strategy & Theory: Arbitrage

A legendary investor named George Soros has been one of the most successful investors of a generation.  He gained extensive notoriety in the FOREX (Foreign Currency) markets taking advantage of market inefficiencies.  This practice, called Arbitrage, is where price disparity is exploited.  It is considered a risk-free strategy.

Is this possible for sports bettors to take advantage of?  And if so, how can sports bettors utilize the same strategy? The answer to the first question is yes.  The answer to the second question largely comes down to futures.  You will need access to multiple sports books to be able to put this practice into play.  

While it is possible, although highly difficult to find, different books having the opposite sides of game lines at the same spread that both pay plus-money occasionally occurs in tight line games (ie football and basketball games where the line is close to -1).  For example: let’s assume USC is playing UCLA.  One sports book may have USC -1 at +105.  Another sports book may have UCLA +1 at +105.  We can’t emphasize enough how rare this is.  But it has happened.

The futures markets, as mentioned above, are where the more frequent opportunities are for Arbitrage.  The same strategy applies, which is taking both sides of an event at plus-money.  This locks in a profit (unless it is a push) and is a risk-free proposition.  Examples where you can find these opportunities include season win totals, player performance totals (ie points scored, number of strikeouts, etc), and draft positions, just to name a few.  

One additional item to consider with Arbitrage: Bet size.  The longer the duration (think season win totals) the less of your bankroll you should commit because your funds will be tied up for months.  You may be ok with this.  But it severely limits your ability to earn more ROI.  The shorter the duration (think pitcher strike outs the day of the game) the more you should commit because the return will be measured in hours, not months.

While finding these opportunities requires extra effort, the results are worth it.  There are very few guarantees in this business, but this is one of them.  

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