College Football Weekly Power Ratings

In a previous article we discussed creating a college football preseason power rating.  We set forth the criteria that has served us well after years of efforts.  It is extremely important to review that post because this post builds from it.  The preseason power ranking is only a starting point for the season. The grind doesn’t stop.  These rankings will change each week depending on a wide variety of factors.  Each bettor has their own criteria the follow closely.  

After the first week of college football is played, it is time to update the rankings.  This will need done after every week, leading into bowl season (which all bets are off, so to speak...check out our bowl season post).  Having said this, below are the primary variables we look at to update our weekly power ratings.

• Offensive efficiency
• Defensive efficiency
• 3rd down offense
• 3rd down defense
• Special Teams
• Game Review vs. Opponent
• Health Factor/Injuries
• Turnover Margin

These variables get included along with others used to determine the initial power rankings.  Those other variables are: Head Coach and Conference Rankings.

Most of these variables are self-explanatory based upon statistical research.  Again, how you assign quantitive analysis is up to you. Just be consistent.  A couple of notes on the others: 

Game Review vs. Opponent:  This is rating a team based upon how they compare to their opponent’s averages.  Did they gain significantly more yards, get more 3rd down stops, etc.  There are resources that can do this analysis for you.  

Health Factor:  This is perhaps the most difficult to analyze.  It isn’t truly quantitative.  Just because a “key player” is out, or injured, doesn’t mean a backup can’t have a level of success.  We have traditionally only made significant shifts to this at specific positions.  Those being QB, top RB, top WR, and K.  

For those who have been producing their own power ratings, they know how much of a grind it is.  That said, if done right, it can make the season substantially more profitable.  Power ratings can stop you from making a bad bet, or show you a soft line to jump on. 

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College Football Win Totals

One of the most exciting times of the sports betting year is the day that college football win totals are released.  It signifies getting serious about power rankings, and provides are renewed interest from professionals and recreational bettors alike.  

Some books release the most popular/biggest programs first, with the smaller schools weeks later.  Other books will release over 100+ teams at the same time.  It can be easy to be overwhelmed by all the opportunity.  Keep in mind with numbers for regular season wins usually ranging from 3-11, there can often be substantial juice (ie -140+) or substantial plus money (+160+) on these bets.

So how do we get started identifying tickets we like? After years of reviewing, and trial and error, we have identified some criteria that has proven very useful when identifying if the books may be overvaluing or undervaluing a particular team.  Those criteria are below:

1. Head Coach: a good head coach knows how to maximize talent and mask deficiencies in his team.
2. Previous year turnover margin: if the team had excessive turnovers, it likely led to losses that could have been wins and may not be accurately depicted in a new win total.  Likewise, if a team had excessive takeaways, that may have helped them win a couple more games they might not have.  In a single season this can have an enormous impact if skewed one direction or the other.
3. How did the team finish the last 4-6 games in the previous year? Sometimes it takes a team time to gel.  Especially when new coaches and schemes come into play.  The last 6 games are more important to look at than the first 6 games of a previous year when thinking about a new season win total.

The first thing to do is to look at the schedule.  There should be some easy wins and easy losses to identify.  Second, for the games that could go either way, look at the three criteria above to see if any of those factors stand out to help make a decision.  Third, for those hard-to-call games, is the team you are looking at on the road, or at home?  Finally, some games are too close to call for these purposes. We have found that assigning 1/2 credit is helpful.  If you give the team you are looking at two 1/2 credits, that counts as one win and one loss.  Keep in mind, the books immediately start hedging based upon how they feel sports bettors will react at certain numbers.  That doesn’t mean -185 or +210 is good or bad, just the book’s interpretation of how they think bettors will respond to the lines.  One more note, these win totals, and the juice, adjust leading up to week one.  You may pay more on your win or get more on your win by waiting.

In other articles on this blog, we will be posting about the impact and statistical playable options for both previous year turnovers and returning lettermen/starters.  Both of these variables can be very telling, statistically and historically, as to how a team will perform the next year.

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Preseason College Football Power Rankings

Every August/September brings a renewed level of excitement for sports bettors.  We’re talking about football season.  With so many ways to watch (ie cable, satellite, streaming, TV, iPad, laptop, phone, etc) and so many games being covered, it is no wonder that so much money is bet on these games.

In order for a professional sports bettor to get ready for the season, a power ranking is needed. Professional sports bettors keep a power ranking spreadsheet, and compare it to lines released by the books.  They also update the list weekly based upon how teams are playing, who they played, injuries, etc.

While some sports bettors buy power rankings, the true professionals make their own list based on experiences they have had, what information is actually valuable as well as quantitative, etc.  It is a constant grind.  For college football, after the games end late Saturday, many pros are updating their power rankings with stats, etc in an effort to be ready when the early lines come out for the following week’s games, which is usually less than 24 hours later.

So what goes into an initial power ranking?  If you asked 20 different sports bettors what their variables are, you would get 20 different answers.  Some have 5 categories, some have 15.  Some have stats that others don’t have.  Should you include turnover margin?  What about net punting yards?  One thing is consistent, though.  Make sure you can somehow quantify it.  Otherwise, bias sets in.  As long as you are consistent in your numerical values assigned.

The fields that we think make the most sense for the INITIAL power ranking is below (please note that once week one is over, there will be other categories added, this will be the subject of another post in the future).  Also, not every category needs to carry the same weight.  For example, Conference Power Ranking should probably carry a lot of weight because playing in the SEC means a team is likely stronger than a team playing in the MAC.  Let’s say Alabama is your highest rated team in the SEC and Akron is your highest rated team in the MAC.  Their statistics vs conference opponents might look similar, but what would happen if Alabama played Akron?  Alabama’s stats would dramatically improve and Akron’s would dramatically deteriorate.  This is why there should be heavy weight given to Conference Rankings.

• Last season final power ranking
• + Recruiting class
• - Graduations, transfers, and early Draft entries
• Head Coach 
• Conference Power Ranking (top to bottom)

With there being well over 100 college FBS teams, it doesn’t seem feasible to keep up with this on a weekly basis unless you truly are a professional sports bettor.  For the rest of sports bettors, we recommend starting with the Top 25 from last year, and adding in another 10 that are likely to move into the Top 25 at some point.  This will allow for 35 teams to follow and keep track of for comparison purposes.  Finally, if time allows, we recommend ranking a small conference, such as the Sun Belt or MAC.  The reasoning behind this is that the games typically don’t attract as much public money, which means if there are big line movements, it is likely the pros hammering one side.  Having a power ranking for this will help solidify your logic to fire at these games.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Reverse Line Movement

We’ve discussed contrarian betting, which is a theory that capitalizes on the books always winning in the end.  This is further illustrated by the fact that the books often go years without having a single losing month.  Finding where the public money is will be a key indicator as to which side to place your action.

Now we will examine another concept that is similar in nature: Reverse Line Movement (RLM).  This is where the betting line, such as the point spread, moves in the reverse direction of the ticket count.  Much like using ticket count to find where the public is, this concept targets the movement in the line associated with that ticket count.

Think of it like this: if using ticket count to find the public side to place a bet sets off a bell in your head, using RLM to place a bet should be like a tornado siren.  

To provide an example, let’s look at a hypothetical game between Alabama and  Ole Miss.  The open/early line is Alabama -10.  After a couple of days, Alabama -10 has 74% of the bets, yet the line has moved to Alabama -9 1/2.  Normally, you would expect a ticket count that high to increase the number.  So why did it go down?  The reason comes back to Pros vs Joes.  The Pros have decided to back Ole Miss +10.  As we’ve discussed, the Pros, although a very small segment of the betting population, typically bet a lot more money than the recreational sports bettor.  And money talks.  The books see this and immediately move the line down to entice more public money on Alabama Bama -9 1/2).  What happens?  The Joes jump on Alabama even more, hence hedging the books risk with all the pubic money that will follow.  

The lesson for sports bettors is this: When you see a high ticket count and RLM on the same game, a tornado siren should go off in your head.  And it may be time to back the “unpopular” but sharp side.

Two quick shout outs: you can find information about ticket count on the Sports Insights app for particular games.  Also, Bet Labs is a great follow on Twitter to mentioning RLM.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Does the Book ALWAYS try for 50/50 action?

Sportsbooks have a fairly simple model when it comes to making money on a single outcome event: get 50% of the money on each side, return 90% profit to the winners, keep 100% from the losers, net 10% (the juice).  In a vacuum that is the way it works.  Except when it doesn’t.

So what would make a book turn away from their standard 10% model?  Well, the answer can be complex.  Let’s look at some examples.  

First, it may come down to how a book manager “feels” about a game.  While the manager might feel that an outcome will go a certain way, he won’t “bet the house” (pun intended) on any event.  Instead, he might “shade” a certain way.  That is, instead of trying to get 50/50 action to net 10%, the book manager might shade 55/45 in favor of the way he thinks the outcome will go.  If he is right, he has added leverage to the net profit.  If he is wrong, he has mathematically broken even on the event (very close, actually).

The second reason a book might turn away from their standard has to do with other action.  For example, a book manager might be looking at how a particular outcome will alter the book’s parlays, teasers, season win total, futures bets, etc.  Doing this will essentially lead to a hedge by the book manager.  While they don’t want to get taken to the cleaners on any one event, they will try to limit losses and maximize profits.  The later in a season it is, the more likely this will happen.

Hopefully you keep this in mind the next time you are trying to figure out why a line at a particular book doesn’t seem right compared to others.  Remember, a half point or even a full point can swing millions in this business.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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