College Football Weekly Power Ratings

In a previous article we discussed creating a college football preseason power rating.  We set forth the criteria that has served us well after years of efforts.  It is extremely important to review that post because this post builds from it.  The preseason power ranking is only a starting point for the season. The grind doesn’t stop.  These rankings will change each week depending on a wide variety of factors.  Each bettor has their own criteria the follow closely.  

After the first week of college football is played, it is time to update the rankings.  This will need done after every week, leading into bowl season (which all bets are off, so to speak...check out our bowl season post).  Having said this, below are the primary variables we look at to update our weekly power ratings.

• Offensive efficiency
• Defensive efficiency
• 3rd down offense
• 3rd down defense
• Special Teams
• Game Review vs. Opponent
• Health Factor/Injuries
• Turnover Margin

These variables get included along with others used to determine the initial power rankings.  Those other variables are: Head Coach and Conference Rankings.

Most of these variables are self-explanatory based upon statistical research.  Again, how you assign quantitive analysis is up to you. Just be consistent.  A couple of notes on the others: 

Game Review vs. Opponent:  This is rating a team based upon how they compare to their opponent’s averages.  Did they gain significantly more yards, get more 3rd down stops, etc.  There are resources that can do this analysis for you.  

Health Factor:  This is perhaps the most difficult to analyze.  It isn’t truly quantitative.  Just because a “key player” is out, or injured, doesn’t mean a backup can’t have a level of success.  We have traditionally only made significant shifts to this at specific positions.  Those being QB, top RB, top WR, and K.  

For those who have been producing their own power ratings, they know how much of a grind it is.  That said, if done right, it can make the season substantially more profitable.  Power ratings can stop you from making a bad bet, or show you a soft line to jump on. 

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