Reverse Line Movement

We’ve discussed contrarian betting, which is a theory that capitalizes on the books always winning in the end.  This is further illustrated by the fact that the books often go years without having a single losing month.  Finding where the public money is will be a key indicator as to which side to place your action.

Now we will examine another concept that is similar in nature: Reverse Line Movement (RLM).  This is where the betting line, such as the point spread, moves in the reverse direction of the ticket count.  Much like using ticket count to find where the public is, this concept targets the movement in the line associated with that ticket count.

Think of it like this: if using ticket count to find the public side to place a bet sets off a bell in your head, using RLM to place a bet should be like a tornado siren.  

To provide an example, let’s look at a hypothetical game between Alabama and  Ole Miss.  The open/early line is Alabama -10.  After a couple of days, Alabama -10 has 74% of the bets, yet the line has moved to Alabama -9 1/2.  Normally, you would expect a ticket count that high to increase the number.  So why did it go down?  The reason comes back to Pros vs Joes.  The Pros have decided to back Ole Miss +10.  As we’ve discussed, the Pros, although a very small segment of the betting population, typically bet a lot more money than the recreational sports bettor.  And money talks.  The books see this and immediately move the line down to entice more public money on Alabama Bama -9 1/2).  What happens?  The Joes jump on Alabama even more, hence hedging the books risk with all the pubic money that will follow.  

The lesson for sports bettors is this: When you see a high ticket count and RLM on the same game, a tornado siren should go off in your head.  And it may be time to back the “unpopular” but sharp side.

Two quick shout outs: you can find information about ticket count on the Sports Insights app for particular games.  Also, Bet Labs is a great follow on Twitter to mentioning RLM.

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