Every August/September brings a renewed level of excitement for sports bettors. We’re talking about football season. With so many ways to watch (ie cable, satellite, streaming, TV, iPad, laptop, phone, etc) and so many games being covered, it is no wonder that so much money is bet on these games.
In order for a professional sports bettor to get ready for the season, a power ranking is needed. Professional sports bettors keep a power ranking spreadsheet, and compare it to lines released by the books. They also update the list weekly based upon how teams are playing, who they played, injuries, etc.
While some sports bettors buy power rankings, the true professionals make their own list based on experiences they have had, what information is actually valuable as well as quantitative, etc. It is a constant grind. For college football, after the games end late Saturday, many pros are updating their power rankings with stats, etc in an effort to be ready when the early lines come out for the following week’s games, which is usually less than 24 hours later.
So what goes into an initial power ranking? If you asked 20 different sports bettors what their variables are, you would get 20 different answers. Some have 5 categories, some have 15. Some have stats that others don’t have. Should you include turnover margin? What about net punting yards? One thing is consistent, though. Make sure you can somehow quantify it. Otherwise, bias sets in. As long as you are consistent in your numerical values assigned.
The fields that we think make the most sense for the INITIAL power ranking is below (please note that once week one is over, there will be other categories added, this will be the subject of another post in the future). Also, not every category needs to carry the same weight. For example, Conference Power Ranking should probably carry a lot of weight because playing in the SEC means a team is likely stronger than a team playing in the MAC. Let’s say Alabama is your highest rated team in the SEC and Akron is your highest rated team in the MAC. Their statistics vs conference opponents might look similar, but what would happen if Alabama played Akron? Alabama’s stats would dramatically improve and Akron’s would dramatically deteriorate. This is why there should be heavy weight given to Conference Rankings.
- Last season final power ranking
- + Recruiting class
- - Graduations, transfers, and early Draft entries
- Head Coach
- Conference Power Ranking (top to bottom)
With there being well over 100 college FBS teams, it doesn’t seem feasible to keep up with this on a weekly basis unless you truly are a professional sports bettor. For the rest of sports bettors, we recommend starting with the Top 25 from last year, and adding in another 10 that are likely to move into the Top 25 at some point. This will allow for 35 teams to follow and keep track of for comparison purposes. Finally, if time allows, we recommend ranking a small conference, such as the Sun Belt or MAC. The reasoning behind this is that the games typically don’t attract as much public money, which means if there are big line movements, it is likely the pros hammering one side. Having a power ranking for this will help solidify your logic to fire at these games.
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