System Betting: Colorado Rockies Home Games

System Bet: Colorado Rockies home games

For several years, the lure of the high altitude at Coors Field in Colorado has attracted sports bettors.  If you like offense, these are the games for you.  Colorado has long built its team around offense to take advantage of the elements of their home games, often times sacrificing on top quality pitching.  This has led to Rockies home games typically having the highest total available for sports bettors.

How does this translate, historically, for over/under records in these games?  The answer may surprise you.

We know that the book makers will have the totals for the Rockies home games at a higher number than other games.  It is common to see 10 -12 on the board, depending on pitching and opponent.  Most sports bettors will tell you that betting the Rockies home game overs is profitable.  Let’s look at some statistics.

Since 2010, Rockies home games have gone over 416 times, under 371 times, and landed right on the number 24 times.  That is an over percentage of 52.9%.  If you bet every one of these games since 2010, you would basically be break even after considering standard juice.

But, since 2017, Rockies home games have gone over 106 times, under 132 times, and landed right on the number 6 times.  The UNDER percentage here is 55.5%.  

It appears the book makers have sensed the public sentiment on Rockies home game overs.  As it turns out, the UNDER is the new bet for these games.  Hitting 55.5% will land you a nice profit on this system bet.

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What the Futures Hold

People still play scratch off lottery tickets, buy raffle tickets, and try to guess how many items are in a jar.  With the odds seemingly so stacked against them, people still believe they have a chance.  While sports betting futures don’t have nearly the same long shot odds, they can still be fairly long, depending on the team and the road to take.

Futures can be very profitable.  Especially when your ticket was purchased early or when the odds looked insurmountable.  Just a few examples that have hit:

2016 Leicester City: 5000/1

1980 USA Hockey Gold: 1000/1

2011 St. Louis Cardinals: 999/1 (15 games left in regular season)

1987 Minnesota Twins: 500/1

1999 St. Louis Rams: 300/1

2019 St. Louis Blues 250/1

2009 Kentucky Derby - Mine That Bird: 50/1

2014 Ohio State Football: 50/1 

1990 Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson: 42/1

There must be something in the water in St. Louis.  

The key to buying futures is to look for identifying when there is real value vs. perceived value.  For example, as to championships, look at the 2014 Ohio State team.  After their starting QB went down for the year, and they lost in week 2 to Virginia Tech, you could get them for 50/1 at books.  But with their entire conference schedule to play, and several teams ahead of them playing each other, it wasn’t that much of a stretch to imagine them at least making the playoff.  There was real value in 50/1.

On the flip side, the key to selling futures is when a marginal team shows a level of success.  This could be a big win early in the season for football.  It could be a baseball team starting off the year strong.  Scheduling comes into play here, especially early in the seasons.  Compare those early season opportunities to the futures prices preseason.

In either case, buying or selling, it is about maximizing value.  The plan with these futures tickets shouldn’t be buy/hold.  It should be buy/sell as to maximize value.  Prop Swap is a great website for buying and selling these “lottery tickets”.  

Having a plan in place when you see a market opportunity can be a boost to your bankroll.  Timing will be paramount.  But the nice part about getting in/out is that you don’t have to worry if your ticket is actually good.  You will have already made your money reselling on the secondary market.

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The Importance of Returning Lettermen in CFB

System betting is often times used throughout the course of a season to pick specific games or matchups.  But this type of betting, which is where you have a proven theory/model and apply it to specific situations, can be just as useful picking win totals for teams in the preseason.

Most books will hang season win totals for football in the summer, often with limit bets.  These are more opportunities to take advantage of all the research you have done, especially as these lines can move a half game or more fairly quickly.  The juice can/does move even faster.

We’ve discussed how to evaluate season win totals in a previous article.  We’ve even written about the impact that a previous year’s turnovers can have on a team for the following season.  One seldom used, but very effective, betting system is to look at returning or lost lettermen.

From 2001 - 2015, teams that had at least 79% of their lettermen returning, and at least 16 starters returning totaled 74 teams.  Of those 74 teams in that time period, 56 of them (75.7%) had the same or better record the following year.  Additionally, the occurrence of teams that had less than 60.5% of their lettermen returning, 11 or less starters returning, and lost their previous year’s starting QB happened 57 times.  Only 8 (14%) improved their record the following year.

System betting can be very profitable.  And statistically speaking, these two systems are.

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Turnovers = Turnaround

One of the best metrics we have seen to determine future performance of a college football or NFL team is the turnover metric.  Simply put, turnovers can equal turnaround.  Both more wins, and more losses.

As Phil Steele says “Turnovers can have a huge impact on games and on a team’s season.  They can also lead to many misleading final scores and make or break a season”.  

Let’s look at some stats:  From 1991 - 2015, there were 346 teams in college football that finished a season +11 or more in the turnover category for the year.  Of those 346 teams, 77% of them finished with a worse/same record than the year before.  Conversely, during the same time period, 285 teams finished the year -10 or more in the turnover category.  The following year, 227 of those teams, or 80%, finished with a better/same record.

As the turnover differential increases, so does the change in percentages the next year.  For example, from 2011 - 2015, there were 39 teams that were +14 or more in turnovers.  Of those, 34 of them were weaker/same in wins the following season (87%).

From a sports betting standpoint, finding the teams that finished the previous year plus or minus double digits in turnovers can be extremely valuable when looking at season win totals.  After pulling this data, compare the previous year record to the preseason over/under win total.  There will likely be several opportunities.  Something to consider when the cash percentage is at least 77%.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts now available in our eBay store at ...  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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