What the Futures Hold

People still play scratch off lottery tickets, buy raffle tickets, and try to guess how many items are in a jar.  With the odds seemingly so stacked against them, people still believe they have a chance.  While sports betting futures don’t have nearly the same long shot odds, they can still be fairly long, depending on the team and the road to take.

Futures can be very profitable.  Especially when your ticket was purchased early or when the odds looked insurmountable.  Just a few examples that have hit:

2016 Leicester City: 5000/1

1980 USA Hockey Gold: 1000/1

2011 St. Louis Cardinals: 999/1 (15 games left in regular season)

1987 Minnesota Twins: 500/1

1999 St. Louis Rams: 300/1

2019 St. Louis Blues 250/1

2009 Kentucky Derby - Mine That Bird: 50/1

2014 Ohio State Football: 50/1 

1990 Buster Douglas vs Mike Tyson: 42/1

There must be something in the water in St. Louis.  

The key to buying futures is to look for identifying when there is real value vs. perceived value.  For example, as to championships, look at the 2014 Ohio State team.  After their starting QB went down for the year, and they lost in week 2 to Virginia Tech, you could get them for 50/1 at books.  But with their entire conference schedule to play, and several teams ahead of them playing each other, it wasn’t that much of a stretch to imagine them at least making the playoff.  There was real value in 50/1.

On the flip side, the key to selling futures is when a marginal team shows a level of success.  This could be a big win early in the season for football.  It could be a baseball team starting off the year strong.  Scheduling comes into play here, especially early in the seasons.  Compare those early season opportunities to the futures prices preseason.

In either case, buying or selling, it is about maximizing value.  The plan with these futures tickets shouldn’t be buy/hold.  It should be buy/sell as to maximize value.  Prop Swap is a great website for buying and selling these “lottery tickets”.  

Having a plan in place when you see a market opportunity can be a boost to your bankroll.  Timing will be paramount.  But the nice part about getting in/out is that you don’t have to worry if your ticket is actually good.  You will have already made your money reselling on the secondary market.

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