System betting is often times used throughout the course of a season to pick specific games or matchups. But this type of betting, which is where you have a proven theory/model and apply it to specific situations, can be just as useful picking win totals for teams in the preseason.
Most books will hang season win totals for football in the summer, often with limit bets. These are more opportunities to take advantage of all the research you have done, especially as these lines can move a half game or more fairly quickly. The juice can/does move even faster.
We’ve discussed how to evaluate season win totals in a previous article. We’ve even written about the impact that a previous year’s turnovers can have on a team for the following season. One seldom used, but very effective, betting system is to look at returning or lost lettermen.
From 2001 - 2015, teams that had at least 79% of their lettermen returning, and at least 16 starters returning totaled 74 teams. Of those 74 teams in that time period, 56 of them (75.7%) had the same or better record the following year. Additionally, the occurrence of teams that had less than 60.5% of their lettermen returning, 11 or less starters returning, and lost their previous year’s starting QB happened 57 times. Only 8 (14%) improved their record the following year.
System betting can be very profitable. And statistically speaking, these two systems are.
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