One of the best metrics we have seen to determine future performance of a college football or NFL team is the turnover metric. Simply put, turnovers can equal turnaround. Both more wins, and more losses.
As Phil Steele says “Turnovers can have a huge impact on games and on a team’s season. They can also lead to many misleading final scores and make or break a season”.
Let’s look at some stats: From 1991 - 2015, there were 346 teams in college football that finished a season +11 or more in the turnover category for the year. Of those 346 teams, 77% of them finished with a worse/same record than the year before. Conversely, during the same time period, 285 teams finished the year -10 or more in the turnover category. The following year, 227 of those teams, or 80%, finished with a better/same record.
As the turnover differential increases, so does the change in percentages the next year. For example, from 2011 - 2015, there were 39 teams that were +14 or more in turnovers. Of those, 34 of them were weaker/same in wins the following season (87%).
From a sports betting standpoint, finding the teams that finished the previous year plus or minus double digits in turnovers can be extremely valuable when looking at season win totals. After pulling this data, compare the previous year record to the preseason over/under win total. There will likely be several opportunities. Something to consider when the cash percentage is at least 77%.
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