Strategy & Theory: MLB season thoughts

Every year after NFL and College Football is over, and college basketball is winding down, baseball season is upon us.  It isn’t long until MLB is the only major sport to bet on.  That can cause some frustration to many sports bettors, as they have a long summer without the other major sports playing several games each day.  

Baseball should be an exciting time for sports betttors.  After all, there are 162 games for each team in the regular season.  It can be a lot to keep up on how teams are playing, injury reports, etc. but it can be well worth your while.  It is important to realize that just because a team or player was dominant last season, doesn’t mean they will be this season.

Long ago, a former pitcher told us that the entire game revolves around the pitcher.  This is why pitchers are listed when odds are placed.  This pitcher once said that one of his coaches went out to the mound to talk to him in the middle of an inning.  The coach said, “when I leave the mound, you count to 100 before you make your next pitch”.  The 100 count seemed to take forever, but the point was made.  Nothing happens without the pitcher and their importance cannot be underestimated in the game, especially from a betting standpoint.

We feel that moneylines are important to utilize in MLB.  The reason is primarily that late in games, when teams are up multiple runs, they will gladly give up a run to get an out.  They only care about winning, not covering (this will be its own article).  

In addition, we feel that one of the best bets to utilize in baseball is the over/under.  The best course of action is to evaluate the ERA of the starting pitchers.  Keep in mind that ERA is over a 9 inning game, and most of the time pitchers don’t pitch a full 9 innnings.  This is why it is also important to know the bullpen pitchers, including set up guys and closers.  You should also know the batting lineup of the teams... to see if there are more right or left handed hitters.  This will play into which reliever is chosen.  

It also makes sense to set parameters, as a starting point, for games of interest.  For example, on OVER bets, looking at the starting pitchers’ ERAs compared to the total.  If they are, say, >1 over the total, perhaps the over is the play.  Or, on UNDER bets, maybe your parameters are the starting pitchers’ ERAs <1.25 under the total.  Again, these are starting points, and can be adjusted to risk tolerance, team play, injuries, etc.

FInally, one last piece of advice.  Consider waiting until the end of April to start with these types of bets.  This will allow starting pitchers to have a handful of starts, and will have an ERA that you can make decisions from.

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Bank Roll Management: Understanding Return on Investment

Return on Investment.  Commonly referred to as ROI, this is a financial term used to determine how much profit, on a percentage basis, you make on an investment.  Real estate investors use this to determine the annual cash return on their projects, and specifically use it to determine which new projects to invest in.  

The same theory is true for sports betting.  Most sports bettors will take or lay points (ATS) in games, or bet the over/under of a total for a particular event.   These gams are typically at 10% juice (-110).  But there are other opportunities to place action on the same events.  For the purposes of this article, we’ll look past things like parlays and teasers.  Instead, we will focus on the moneyline.  The moneyline is taking one team to win straight up.  For underdogs, the moneyline offers a return over 100%.  This is consummate with the risk involved in taking the dog.  The higher the point spread (football or basketball), the higher the return over 100%.

However taking the favorite is also an option.  This is the focus of our article.  When you take a favorite straight up, you will receive a return that is less than (significantly, in some cases) the standard 90% return from the ATS bets.  While some argue that the return isn’t that great (you can find these numbers at -120 through -2500 and beyond), an argument can be made that it is still a good ROI.  

To use and example, let’s say team A is -200 on the moneyline.  You like them to win, but not necessarily cover the spread.  A -200 line will return 50% to you in the event of a win.  So, if you bet $100, you will get a return of $50.  While this is significantly less than the $90 you would win if team A covers the spread, you only need them to win, not win by X amount of points.  Consideration should be given to this more often.  A ROI of 10% or 30% is better than losing 100% if team A wins but doesn’t cover the number.  

This strategy is becoming more prevalent.  There are companies that use this theory exclusively because they understand ROI and minimize catastrophic risk (losing the bet).  While not a guarantee, you should be able to hit a significantly higher percentage of wins using the moneyline.  In a previous article we mentioned that roughly 53% ATS is breakeven considering the juice.  You will need to hit a lot higher than 53% to make money to offset the inevitable losses, but it is possible to make money in the long run doing this, at a solid ROI.

One more note... A way to further leverage this return is to parlay moneylines.  The standard 3 team parlay pays 6:1.  That is, each bet in the parlay is at -110.  Using a parlay of moneyline favorites, the calculation factors in those numbers.  So instead of -110, -110, and -110, you would be at say -250, -350, and -1000.  The result is significantly less than 6:1, but still a solid ROI.

For a true gamble, you could bet the underdogs on a moneyline parlay for a payout well over 6:1.  Isn’t this how Kelly in Vegas got her start?  Look at her now!

There is money to be made by understanding ROI in its importance in your bankroll management.

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Make Your Enemy Your Friend

Theory and Strategy: Make your enemy your friend

People bet on sports for a variety of reasons.  Professional bettors make their mortgage payments with action on a wide variety of sports utilizing spread bets and over/unders etc. Recreational bettors like to have action, usually involving games of interest to them, whether it be games on tv or backing their favorite teams. 

Often times, these recreational bettors have teams they don’t like for one reason or another. Whereas professionals don’t care about teams (they bet numbers, not teams), the average Joe typically has a team they love to see lose. This is the basis for this article: Bet for the team you don’t like.  A little extra cash in your wallet helps ease the pain. 

There are several ways to illustrate this. We’ll look at football for illustration purposes, although it is important to know how this theory can change from sport to sport, and for what you’re “desired” outcome is. 

Let’s pick a team, say, the New England Patriots, for example. If you can’t stand seeing them win, or they always beat your favorite team when it matters most, place a futures Super Bowl bet on them. Or two. Maybe just the thought of this makes you cringe.  Obviously you want the _____________ (insert rival team here) to lose. In this case, the Patriots. There are typically two good times to do this, with a caveat third. The first is preseason. With a lot of uncertainty for a new season, this will be a good chance to get in before the odds get shorter. Remember, we want to maximize our return should they win it all.  The second good time to get in on a team is when they lose. The odds inevitably get longer with each loss. 

Finally, when a key player gets injured, the odds move and it may be time to place your action.  About five years ago, Ohio State was one of the top picks to win the national championship in the preseason. You could find them around 4:1. If you don’t like Ohio State, 4x your money may seem somewhat comforting to endure a Buckeye National Championship. In a summer practice, Big 10 offensive player of the year Braxton Miller got injured. When the report came out that he wouldn’t play that season, Ohio State went from 4:1 to 50:1. What’s more, they lost a game early in the year to Virginia Tech, who was dreadful the remainder of the year and the odds increased. We all know the result. Ohio State never looked back and routed Wisconsin for the Big 10 Championship, Beat top ranked Alabama, and housed Oregon to win it all. 

If you are anti-New England or anti-Ohio State or anti-__________(insert rival team here) consider placing action FOR them, not against. Your pocketbook will thank you should you have to watch them hoist the trophy. 

One other note: consider two identical tickets. That way when those teams make their run, you can put one for sale on PropSwap and lock in a profit while keeping the other for additional upside. 

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. New shirts available now at https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Develop a New Specialty

Professional gamblers are just that.  Professional.  There is no backstop W-2.  No trust fund.  Just the daily grind of the business.   Day in and day out. 

During unprecedented times, such as the shut down of every major college and professional sport, professionals still need to make a living.  Without having sports to bet on, the bankroll deteriorates quickly.

There is a brief time of the year when there is something similar to this, in a way.  Between roughly June and August, MLB is the only game in town.  The NBA and NHL have finished their postseasons, and college football and the NFL have not started.  This is why so many professional gamblers follow baseball so close.  There are always a plethora of games on any given day.

We have mentioned in other posts about the need to specialize.  To have something you know inside and out.  It could be a sport like the NFL, or a conference like MAC basketball.  Having a specialization allows you to focus on soft numbers the books post and use them as an opportunity to increase your bankroll.  

This can also work for an environment where there are no major sports being played, such as with the coronavirus shutdown.  Even with no major professional sports, you can still place action on soccer, horses, politics, tennis, esports, cricket, UFC/MMA, NASCAR, and IndyCar.  Use downtime to develop a new specialization.  It will serve you well in times where limited action is available as you can place your action with more confidence and take advantage of soft lines.

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Strategy & Theory: Teams Try to Win, Not Cover

Teams try to win, not cover.  It sounds like it should go without saying.  So why do we mention this?  Because we should keep this in mind when looking at lines for games, especially larger lines in football and basketball.  In the overwhelming majority of cases, teams don’t care about covering the number.  They only care about winning.  

Let’s take a look at a hypothetical game between Team A and Team B.  This football game line is Team A - 17 .  In the last couple of minutes of the game, Team A has the ball at Team B’s 20 yard line, and are up by 14.  If you laid the 17, you would be in trouble.  It’s not that Team A COULDN’T put up another touchdown, or even kick a field goal, to give you the win or at least a tie.  It’s that they WON’T.  Team A doesn’t care about covering the spread.  They want to run the clock out.  They might even run a 4th down running play, turning the ball over, instead of kicking that field goal.  Sometimes announcers even indirectly comment on these things at the end of games.  Brent Musberger famously said about a score at the end of a game that meant nothing to the outcome ... “That score means more to some than others”.  If you’ve been betting any amount of time, you’ve probably watched games that have been decided for who wins and who loses long before the final whistle to see how these types of scenarios play out.

So how do we know when to consider laying the spread, and how do we know when to lean more towards the moneyline?  Some things to consider are shown below:

Football and Basketball:  Generally speaking, the higher the spread, the more you should take the moneyline.  While the higher spread reduces the payout on a moneyline, the ROI is still very nice in general (as discussed in a previous article).  Teams want to win, not cover.  If the game is in hand, the team with a substantial lead generally tries to run the clock out, even at the expense of not scoring or even letting the other team score.

Baseball and Hockey:  these games are both usually + or - 1.5.  In baseball, it is called the run line.  In hockey, it is called the puck line.  In baseball, one phenomenon to consider is that typically late in games, the team with a lead will often gladly give up a run to get an out.  In hockey, a phenomenon to consider is that the team that is losing typically pulls their goalie at the end of the game, sometimes giving up another goal in the process. These two trends can wreck your tickets at the end of games. 

The point of this is to keep in mind that teams try to win, not cover.  Keep that in mind the next time you like a football team to cover 17 or a hockey team laying 1.5 goals at -185.  Taking the moneyline might be the safe play.  And it might also be the only profitable play for the team you want action on.

Thanks for reading. Please follow us on this blog and also stay up to date with our current posts on Twitter @scccllc and @moneylineshow. Shirts available at https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcKeep checking back! 

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Strategy & Theory: March Madness betting guide

There are several theories on picking a winning March Madness bracket for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  We are not talking about favorite colors or states you’d like to visit.  Instead, we are thinking about strategies and theories to show trends or anything else that can be gleaned from years of experience coupled with current matchups, injuries, etc.  We are not a proponent of picking chalk (the favorites).  After all, we have seen a 1 seed lose in the first round along with a handful of 2 seeds, and several 3’s and 4’s.

So what is an effective format to employ in picking a bracket for an office pool, or even to utilize in specific games or regional champion bets?  As we see it, there are three basic criteria that comes into play:

Final Four Coach: obviously every coach that wins the tournament has to get a first Final Four.  But having said that, look at this list of active coaches that have made it to MULTIPLE Final Fours: Coach K, Roy Williams, Tom Izzo, Jim Boeheim, John Calipari, Bill Self, Jay Wright, Bob Huggins, Lon Kruger.  If you are in doubt on a pick for your bracket, see if any of these names are coaching.  They are proven winners in March.

Great Guard Play:  Typically speaking, this comes down to having a great point 

guard, but can also be a great shooting guard.  Historically speaking, teams that have a great point guard have advanced further than teams with solid overall teams.  Most of this can be explained with X’s and O’s with dribble/drive, etc.  The point is, players you have never heard of can take over a game, especially with one of the coaches above guiding them.  

Tournament success: One other component of Tournament Success is ... Tournament Success.  Take a look at the two most recent UCONN championship teams.  In 2011, they were picked to finish 10th in the Big East, yet they won the Maui Invitational.  They finished the regular season 9th in conference.  But, they had a Coach who has won a championship before (Jim Calhoun) and great guard play (Kamba Walker).  They won five conference tournament games in five days to win the Big East Tournament and ultimately won the National Championship.  The 2014 UCONN team had many of the same characteristics.  Coach Kevin Ollie had played for Jim Calhoun and was an assistant on that 2011 team, and they had great guard play with Shabazz Napier.  This team won the 2k Sports Classic and ultimately the National Championship as a 7 seed.

When filling out your bracket, make sure to give consideration to these criteria when unsure.  And now that you have the framework for picking a winning bracket, make sure to buy a Dr. of Bracketology shirt at  https://www.ebay.com/str/steelcityclothingcompanyllcto show everyone!  Thanks for reading.  #shootersshoot

10 Rules for Selling Sports Picks

If you have spent any time in this business, you have inevitably run across syndicates or individuals trying to sell you their “expert” picks.  While there are several good services out there, many are not.  So how do you know if a service is good?  Staying power is important... you wouldn’t want to buy picks from someone who started last week... how long have they been in the space?  Also, it’s important to note that using a standard 10% juice, and keeping the same bet size, you need to win 53% of the time to break even (which is a future blog posting). 

Having said this, we have created the 10 Rules for Sports Picks Services.  They are as follows:

1. Offer free picks.  There should be opportunities for new customers to consider these picks.  Track the history of the free picks.  Are they winning or losing overall?
2. A service shouldn’t charge for picks unless they will, at least occasionally, discloses evidence of them already making the same pick offered. Also, this will show how much “skin” the service has in the game.  Don’t take advice from someone who doesn’t have to live with the consequences.  
3. Admit when you lose.  Don’t always use excuses like a bad call by a ref.  Sometimes those things happen.  But that is also part of sports betting.
4. A win is singular.  It does not count as more than one win and you can’t ride the coattails of one win for long.
5. Have a catchy “lock” to get people excited.  Examples used already are: Stone Cold Lead Pipe, Blood Bank Guarantee, Bet the Kids College Fund, and Mortal Lock.  Be creative and use sparingly. 
6. You don’t know everything.  Tell us what you follow (ie college football, horses, tennis, NBA)
7. Specialize in something: a lot of interest in SEC football but a win in MAC basketball counts the same.  Be known for your specialty.  
8. Be interesting. This can be done in several ways, but just be yourself.
9. Offer Q&A sessions via Twitter, Periscope, or similar.
10. Be concise.  Give the reasons why for your picks is short form.  It doesn’t take 30 minutes of reading to come to a conclusion of Patriots -3.

A sports betting service should use the proceeds from sales of picks to enhance profit, not be the sole source of it.  Next time you are thinking of subscribing to a service, or just want to review the service you use, reread this list.  

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