Strategy & Theory: College Football Power Rankings Continued

In a previous article we discussed creating a college football preseason power rating.  We set forth the criteria that has served us well after years of efforts.  It is extremely important to review that post because this post builds from it.  The preseason power ranking is only a starting point for the season. The grind doesn’t stop.  These rankings will change each week depending on a wide variety of factors.  Each bettor has their own criteria the follow closely.  

After the first week of college football is played, it is time to update the rankings.  This will need done after every week, leading into bowl season (which all bets are off, so to speak...check out our bowl season post).  Having said this, below are the primary variables we look at to update our weekly power ratings.

• Offensive efficiency
• Defensive efficiency
• 3rd down offense
• 3rd down defense
• Special Teams
• Game Review vs. Opponent
• Health Factor/Injuries
• Turnover Margin

These variables get included along with others used to determine the initial power rankings.  Those other variables are: Head Coach and Conference Rankings.

Most of these variables are self-explanatory based upon statistical research.  Again, how you assign quantitive analysis is up to you. Just be consistent.  A couple of notes on the others: 

Game Review vs. Opponent:  This is rating a team based upon how they compare to their opponent’s averages.  Did they gain significantly more yards, get more 3rd down stops, etc.  There are resources that can do this analysis for you.  

Health Factor:  This is perhaps the most difficult to analyze.  It isn’t truly quantitative.  Just because a “key player” is out, or injured, doesn’t mean a backup can’t have a level of success.  We have traditionally only made significant shifts to this at specific positions.  Those being QB, top RB, top WR, and K.  

For those who have been producing their own power ratings, they know how much of a grind it is.  That said, if done right, it can make the season substantially more profitable.  Power ratings can stop you from making a bad bet, or show you a soft line to jump on. 

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Strategy & Theory: On the Contrary

A sports bettor once said, “They didn’t build all those casinos in Vegas on winners”. In other words, the house always wins in the end. So if professional sports bettors make a net profit, and a living, how do the sports book stay open? The answer is all of the non-professional sports bettors.

These non-professional sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of the action placed on sporting events. We have commonly referred to them as recreational sports bettors. They are clearly of a different caliber than the professionals. And while they have the same goal as the professionals, their livelihood is not at stake.

Different books release information as to the bet count and money on a particular event. Keeping in mind that recreational sports bettors make up the overwhelming majority of action placed, it is safe to assume that when you see the bet count, or ticket count, swing well into the 70% range, that is where the recreational bettors, or public money, is. One thing to keep in mind is the public has an average bet size of substantially less than the professionals. The books almost don’t care where the bet count is. And neither should you. Another old saying is, “follow the money”. If 70% of the action is one way, and the line has not moved, it is because the professionals are taking the other side, and for a lot of money.

This leads to an interesting opportunity. It is commonly referred to as contrarian betting. At the end of the day, the book makes money. Maybe not on any one particular game. But over a long period of time, they do. Year in and year out. Therefore, if you can find a situation in which the bet count, or ticket count, is at a high clip, it may be worth taking the other side, and doing it consistently as a strategy. You will then be on the side of the book, and as we just said, the book always wins in the end.

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Using Blackjack Strategy for Sports Betting

Years ago, someone mentioned a gambling theory to us.  It was related to Blackjack.  The theory is, every time you lose to the dealer, you double your lost amount on the next hand.  That way, every time you win, you are back to even.  This can be difficult to stomach when you lose several hand in a row, which is inevitable.  

This theory can also be applied to sports betting.  Let’s run through a quick example.  In previous posts, we’ve mentioned the theory of betting 1% of your bankroll as a standard, with a $100 bet size given.  This would mean that your bankroll is $10k.  This predominantly works for football and basketball ATS and over/unders.  It can also work for over/unders for baseball and hockey.  It doesn’t work for run line in baseball or puck line in hockey as the juice varies by game.  We will assume a standard 10% juice in the analysis below:

Bet 1:

Bet $100

Total loss: $100

Bet 2: 

Bet $111.11

Total loss: $211.11

Bet 3:

Bet $234.57

Total loss: $445.68

Bet 4:

Bet $495.20

Total loss: $940.88

Bet 5:

Bet $1,045.42

Total loss: $1,986.30

Bet 6:

Bet $2,207.00

Total loss: $4,193.30

Bet 7:

Bet $4,659.22

Total loss: $8,852.52

This shows that if you start with a 1% initial bet on a $10k bankroll, and you lost 7 straight bets, you would have $1,147.48 left.  Put simply, you need to win by bet 7.  It might not seem like it is that hard to do, but mentally if you have lost 4 or 5 in a row, do you have the stomach to keep going?  

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Defining Value

How do we define value?  For poker players, it comes down to things like expected results compared to expected pricing.  If a player is making a decision based on their hand and the board, they consider things like how much the bet is (or to make), how much is in the pot, their hand compared to the board (and if they need help), etc.  These are called implied odds and pot odds.  Ultimately, they are calculating the odds compared to the situation and trying to determine if the odds are in their favor or not.  Essentially, they are calculating if they have value compared to the situation in front of them.

The same is true for sports bettors.  They look at the current pricing and the game’s situation and make the same type of determination.  This is relatively easy for ATS with standard juice at -110, because they know the payoff, they just need to calculate the line or even over/under.

Using a moneyline, either for the favorite or dog, is where the pricing comes into play.  If a moneyline is set at -125, but you have it calculated at -160, you have value.  Similarly, if a line is +220 and you have it calculated at +180, you have value.

Poker players know that defining value in every situation allows them to be more profitable in the long run.  In the short run, things happen that can alter it, such as getting 2-outed on the river.  But over the course of several sessions, they know that defining value consistently will lead to profitability.  The same is true for sports bettors.  Define value with every bet you make and it will help your bankroll over time.

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Expected Value

A predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence.  That is the definition of expected value.  So why does that matter?  Because we can use it to help determine an advantage in sports betting.

This industry, as we’ve stated, is a numbers game.  When looking at all of the possible outcomes of a sporting event, there are only a few true variables.  Let’s say that we are interested in placing action on a team.  We calculate that the probability of a cover is 60%.  That alone tells us the expected value (EV) is worth the action.  Of course you would take anything over 50%.  Or 52.38%.

But how else can we use EV to turn profits?  One way is in-game action.  If possible, calculate the live odds given the scenarios before you.  While there are a lot of variables to consider for in-game betting, being able to assign actual value and compare it to the numbers the book offers can add value to your bankroll.  These numbers change frequently, so being familiar with teams and scenarios is key.

Another way to use EV is for parlays.  While we don’t typically consider parlays ATS or O/U (we do on moneylines), being able to calculate game odds and EV can enable you to search the board for the best scenarios to match.  Using this strategy of EV can enable you to enhance your bankroll.

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Strategy & Theory: Home Court Advantage is Real

For years sports bettors have known about Home Court Advantage (HCA).  This is a theory that says the home team has an advantage because they don’t have to travel before a game, which allows them to stay in their own environment, including their homes, their most familiar locker room, etc.  

Is this a real thing?  With the unfortunate events of 2020, there was an opportunity provided with the NBA bubble.  Researchers from Oregon Health & Science University studied information relating to the 22 teams that went into the NBA bubble.  There were some important findings that we’ll review below.  But first, it is important to know that during the course of a regular season, NBA  teams fly around 50,000 miles.  The schedule also has teams go across different time zones, often immediately after a game ends.

The first finding was that the performance on the road was dependent on getting adjusted to the new time zone and the quality level of the sleep obtained.  This specifically impacts accuracy.  Shooting performance was impacted by travel across time zones.  This was evidenced by historical numbers, compared to shooting performance inside the bubble.  Once inside the bubble, shooting performance improved significantly. 

Next, the study found that rebounding was impacted by travel in general.  Rebounding requires short bursts of effort.  The study determined that visiting teams didn’t rebound as well, even if the game was in the same time zone as their home.  This is because sleeping at home produces better sleep than hotel room sleep.  

Finally, the study found that the travel was most noticeable by East Coast teams playing on the West Coast.  If a game starts at 8pm on the West Coast, the body clock of the East Coast team thinks it is 11pm.  This means that when the game is in the 4th quarter, the bodies of the East Coast team think it is nearing 2am.

Keep this in mind the next time you are looking at an East Coast team that just finished playing back-to-back games and is flying to the West Coast.

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PSA: Think Through Drastic Changes

Every once in a great while, there are events that can happen to a game that can greatly alter how it should be bet.  We are talking about extreme circumstances.  Their impact, and often timing, can cause the books and bettors alike to have snap reactions and not think through the new information available.

In November 2007, the Steelers and Dolphins played in a game in which the amount of rain was horrendous.  The game was in Pittsburgh on a Monday night.  The over/under was set at 38.  The massive rainfall that hit Pittsburgh was no secret for days, yet the line didn’t come down significantly.  The result?  Pittsburgh won 3-0 on a field goal with under one minute remaining.  While a total of 3 seems unlikely to predict, based on the amount of rain, it was easy to see the under was the play.

In August 2019, the Raiders and Packers played a preseason game in Canada on a CFL field in which the field was reduced to 80 yards due to holes where the goal posts usually are being unsafe for the players.  The over/under on this game was set at 40.  Thinking this through, a team needs a shorter distance for a touchdown and can get in field goal range much easier.  The result?  The over cashed.

Our last example was a game played in November 2020 between Virginia Tech and Pitt.  Due to local ordinances, the players were required to wear masks DURING playing.  The over/under was initially set at 55 1/2 but dropped all the way down to 52 1/2 before kickoff.  Again, using common logic, we know that the defenses are typically more susceptible to pace and conditions than the offense is.  In this case, the mask mandate hindered the defenses ability to get oxygen thus making them more tired and worn out.  The result?  A total of 61 points as the over cashed with ease.

The next time specific conditions take over a game, don’t react, but respond.  You can often times take advantage of these situations because they are so rare and bookmakers and bettors haven’t thought through how they will impact the game.

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Traits of Successful Sports Bettors

You may have heard about books that are tailored to looking into the lives of successful people to see things that they do that help them achieve the level they are at.  These books can apply to specific people such as Bill Gates or Warren Buffett.  Some are more general, such as “Seven habits of highly effective people” or tips from high performing sales individuals.

Does the same apply to highly successful sports bettors?  We think so.  After hearing from some long time bettors and gathering information, here are the common traits that some of the most successful bettors have in common.

Patience: knowing when to lay off a bet and when to make one takes years to understand.  The best bettors know that there are always more bets later in the day, or tomorrow, or next week.

Discipline: the entire premise of growing your bankroll is founded on this principle.  Being consistent with betting size and not chasing losses will help you be successful over the long run.

Statistics: understanding probability, and being able to calculate it quickly, will pay huge dividends in this business.  Some use computer programs, some use spreadsheets, but the best sports bettors can do a lot of these calculations in their head.  Understanding the math behind the odds will help you in the long run.  

Reading comprehension: being able to decipher large amounts of information in short amounts of time will be a huge asset.  Equally as important is knowing what information is to be disregarded.  There are several ways to get this information, whether from mainstream media or beat writers.  Knowing what information to use and what not to use, and the speed at which you do it, will add substantial value to your bankroll over time.

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Futures Value Analysis

Prior to the start of the shortened 2020 MLB season, there were several enticing futures available.  With fewer games to be played (60) it allows for a team that might not be true contenders for 162 games to make the playoffs.  One futures option was the Tampa Bay Rays at +2000.  With their starting rotation of pitchers and enough hitters in the line up, they had the potential to compete with anyone.

Over the course of the regular season, the Rays went 40-20.  This led them into the playoffs, but now they were going to face other playoff teams consistently.  While they made it to the World Series, losing in 6 games to the LA Dodgers, there was a lot of value on a +2000 ticket all along the way.

When analyzing futures value, we need to look at the path to the ticket cashing.  It was reasonable to assume that, barring injuries, the Rays would make the playoffs.  However, the first round of the playoffs was only 3 games.  The next round was only 5 games.  The point is, in a shortened series, it provides more opportunities for a lesser quality team to win.  Starting pitching, as we’ve discussed, is crucial to MLB postseason success.  If your team doesn’t have their best pitchers available for these shortened series games, it provides more reliance on the hitters. 

The reason we mention this is because ultimately it comes down to value, and even being able to sell your ticket when timing allows.  Taking a favorite such as the Yankees or Dodgers at +275 doesn’t make a lot of sense or have real value when the structure of the postseason schedule allows for greater variance.  Finding a team with higher odds, such as +2000, allows for locking in a profit when there is greater variance to a series.

Think about this the next time you are looking at futures.  When you consider a schedule, injuries, etc, +250 - +1000 doesn’t make a lot of sense.  This applies to all sports, especially when there are more variances that are out of control.  In short, get paid for the risk you take with these futures tickets and have a way to sell when the timing is right.

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Strategy & Theory: Using Efficiency in Basketball

In recent years, more and more sports bettors have turned to detailed statistics to help them decide what action to place.  One of the most prevalent uses of this is in basketball.  You may have heard of efficiency ratios.  They can be both offense and defense.  These quantitative calculations can help predict the final score of a game, which gives you a play on the spread, moneyline, and total.  It also works for both college and NBA.

To illustrate this, we need to look at possessions per game (PPG) as well as points per possession (PPP).  Let’s assume Team A averages 80 PPG and Team B averages 70 PPG.  The average of these is 75 PPG, which we will use for each team.

Next, Team A averages 1.7 PPP on offense, and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  Team B averages 1.4 PPP on offense and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  The calculation we perform to find the average associated score is as follows:

Team A: (1.7 + 1.3)/2 = 1.5 PPP * 75 PPG = 112.5

Team B: (1.4 + 1.3)/2 = 1.35 PPP *75 PPG = 101.25

It is important to note that we are averaging Team A’s offensive efficiency with Team B’s defensive efficiency, and vice versa, and multiplying these by the PPG.  Using this analysis, you can determine a play on both the spread and total for each game.  

Application:  a few things to keep in mind... Always check the injury report, not just for actual injuries, but also game time decisions, rest, etc.  It is always best to wait until there is a sample size of games after the start of a new season.  This will allow time for new players, coaches, systems, etc to have enough data to support using this theory of score predicting.  Finally, this should work better the longer a season goes on as there is more data available, which based upon the number of games, etc, the NBA will provide more opportunities here than the college game.

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Strategy & Theory: Roll Moneylines vs Futures

Placing a futures ticket can lead to excitement.  Typically they are placed well in advance of the event that ultimately pays out.  It gives a chance too root for a team for an entire season, or sell a ticket to lock in a profit before the final event happens.

Moneylines are simply placing action on a team to win.  The spread doesn’t come into play.  You are just looking for a win.  Depending on how much of a favorite or and underdog the team is will determine your payout.

These two types of bets rarely get viewed together.  That is, many times sports bettors looking to place action on a team for something like the Super Bowl or March Madness Championship, only look at the futures market.  But, as we will illustrate below, that may not always be the most profitable option.

Let’s say we are looking at the College Football Playoff (this theory applies to various sports and situations, but we’ll focus on this one).  The following options are available in the futures market: Alabama: 2:1; Clemson: 3:1; Ohio State: 4:1; and USC: 8:1.

If you were willing to bet on USC in this case, the payout is 8:1.  But they need to win both of the next two games for your ticket to cash.  Let’s say they play Alabama in their first game.  USC is +350.  Let’s also assume that when they play the winner of Clemson/Ohio St that they would be +300 on the moneyline.  If you bet $100 on USC +350 vs Alabama and they win, you now have a total of $450 ($350 win plus $100 initial).  Now, if you roll that $450 into the Championship game at +300, you would get $1,350 profit.  Combining this with your $450 you get back means you have a total of $1,800.  Less your initial $100 leaves $1,700.  That is 17:1 vs. the future ticket at 8:1.  

This theory can also work for favorites, even at -110, etc.  Rolling moneyline winnings will usually lead to higher net profit than a futures ticket.  Keep this theory in mind the next time you are looking to place a futures ticket on a team.

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