Futures Value Analysis

Prior to the start of the shortened 2020 MLB season, there were several enticing futures available.  With fewer games to be played (60) it allows for a team that might not be true contenders for 162 games to make the playoffs.  One futures option was the Tampa Bay Rays at +2000.  With their starting rotation of pitchers and enough hitters in the line up, they had the potential to compete with anyone.

Over the course of the regular season, the Rays went 40-20.  This led them into the playoffs, but now they were going to face other playoff teams consistently.  While they made it to the World Series, losing in 6 games to the LA Dodgers, there was a lot of value on a +2000 ticket all along the way.

When analyzing futures value, we need to look at the path to the ticket cashing.  It was reasonable to assume that, barring injuries, the Rays would make the playoffs.  However, the first round of the playoffs was only 3 games.  The next round was only 5 games.  The point is, in a shortened series, it provides more opportunities for a lesser quality team to win.  Starting pitching, as we’ve discussed, is crucial to MLB postseason success.  If your team doesn’t have their best pitchers available for these shortened series games, it provides more reliance on the hitters. 

The reason we mention this is because ultimately it comes down to value, and even being able to sell your ticket when timing allows.  Taking a favorite such as the Yankees or Dodgers at +275 doesn’t make a lot of sense or have real value when the structure of the postseason schedule allows for greater variance.  Finding a team with higher odds, such as +2000, allows for locking in a profit when there is greater variance to a series.

Think about this the next time you are looking at futures.  When you consider a schedule, injuries, etc, +250 - +1000 doesn’t make a lot of sense.  This applies to all sports, especially when there are more variances that are out of control.  In short, get paid for the risk you take with these futures tickets and have a way to sell when the timing is right.

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Strategy & Theory: Using Efficiency in Basketball

In recent years, more and more sports bettors have turned to detailed statistics to help them decide what action to place.  One of the most prevalent uses of this is in basketball.  You may have heard of efficiency ratios.  They can be both offense and defense.  These quantitative calculations can help predict the final score of a game, which gives you a play on the spread, moneyline, and total.  It also works for both college and NBA.

To illustrate this, we need to look at possessions per game (PPG) as well as points per possession (PPP).  Let’s assume Team A averages 80 PPG and Team B averages 70 PPG.  The average of these is 75 PPG, which we will use for each team.

Next, Team A averages 1.7 PPP on offense, and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  Team B averages 1.4 PPP on offense and gives up 1.3 PPP on defense.  The calculation we perform to find the average associated score is as follows:

Team A: (1.7 + 1.3)/2 = 1.5 PPP * 75 PPG = 112.5

Team B: (1.4 + 1.3)/2 = 1.35 PPP *75 PPG = 101.25

It is important to note that we are averaging Team A’s offensive efficiency with Team B’s defensive efficiency, and vice versa, and multiplying these by the PPG.  Using this analysis, you can determine a play on both the spread and total for each game.  

Application:  a few things to keep in mind... Always check the injury report, not just for actual injuries, but also game time decisions, rest, etc.  It is always best to wait until there is a sample size of games after the start of a new season.  This will allow time for new players, coaches, systems, etc to have enough data to support using this theory of score predicting.  Finally, this should work better the longer a season goes on as there is more data available, which based upon the number of games, etc, the NBA will provide more opportunities here than the college game.

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Strategy & Theory: Roll Moneylines vs Futures

Placing a futures ticket can lead to excitement.  Typically they are placed well in advance of the event that ultimately pays out.  It gives a chance too root for a team for an entire season, or sell a ticket to lock in a profit before the final event happens.

Moneylines are simply placing action on a team to win.  The spread doesn’t come into play.  You are just looking for a win.  Depending on how much of a favorite or and underdog the team is will determine your payout.

These two types of bets rarely get viewed together.  That is, many times sports bettors looking to place action on a team for something like the Super Bowl or March Madness Championship, only look at the futures market.  But, as we will illustrate below, that may not always be the most profitable option.

Let’s say we are looking at the College Football Playoff (this theory applies to various sports and situations, but we’ll focus on this one).  The following options are available in the futures market: Alabama: 2:1; Clemson: 3:1; Ohio State: 4:1; and USC: 8:1.

If you were willing to bet on USC in this case, the payout is 8:1.  But they need to win both of the next two games for your ticket to cash.  Let’s say they play Alabama in their first game.  USC is +350.  Let’s also assume that when they play the winner of Clemson/Ohio St that they would be +300 on the moneyline.  If you bet $100 on USC +350 vs Alabama and they win, you now have a total of $450 ($350 win plus $100 initial).  Now, if you roll that $450 into the Championship game at +300, you would get $1,350 profit.  Combining this with your $450 you get back means you have a total of $1,800.  Less your initial $100 leaves $1,700.  That is 17:1 vs. the future ticket at 8:1.  

This theory can also work for favorites, even at -110, etc.  Rolling moneyline winnings will usually lead to higher net profit than a futures ticket.  Keep this theory in mind the next time you are looking to place a futures ticket on a team.

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Strategy & Theory: Know What Needs to Happen

How often do we see the last week of the NFL season be the determining factor as to who gets a top seed, who is playing for a home game, and who even makes the playoffs.  Clearly the players and coaches know this.  And so do the books.

One strategy that has been important to utilize has been knowing what needs to happen for each team on that final week.  For example, if a team is playing for a top seed or even to make the playoffs, they will be highly motivated to win their final regular season game.  Notice we didn’t say cover their final regular season game.  Often times the books will post larger than normal lines on the favorites in these situations.  They know the public is looking to back the favorite in a “must-win” situation.  Don’t fall victim to this trap.  

Identify these teams after the close of the 2nd to last regular season game and get ready to back them... on the moneyline.  If the Packers are playing for the top seed in the NFC, and only need a win, they don’t care about covering the 11-point spread.  They only care about winning.

Another idea to keep in mind is to know the schedule of games in chronological order.  You could have two teams playing in the final week where one is playing for home field and the other is playing to just get in.  If Team B can only make the playoffs if Team A loses, and Team A plays at 1:00 and loses, get ready to fire away on Team B before their 4:00 start.  Knowing each scenario is important.  And always take monelylines.  When their playoffs, home-field, and bye weeks are on the line, these teams want to win and stay healthy.  That’s it.

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Bankroll Management: Bet to Risk vs. Bet to Win

When you go to place your wager at the window, you have two primary options: Bet to Risk and Bet to Win.  While it isn’t a difficult concept to understand, how you apply it to your bankroll can make a huge impact.  Let’s look at both options.

Bet to Risk is simply placing a bet and having the juice (or plus money payout) applied to the amount of money bet.  Let’s say you take a moneyline bet on the Lakers at -150.  You bet $100.  If the Lakers win, you win $66.67 and get your initial $100 back for a total of $166.67.  Of course if the Lakers lose, you get $0.

Bet to Win means that you are targeting an amount you want to win on the bet, and let the current odds dictate how much you have to risk.  In the example above, if you wanted to win $100 on the Lakers at the same odds, you would need to risk $150 at -150 odds. 

Because sports bettors have both options, you are in control of which type you choose.  But, it is important to keep in mind that while you have control, knowing what situations to use each is critical.  

Using Bet to Win can be helpful if you are trying to target a specific dollar amount to increase your bankroll to in a short time period.  You simply pick your action and go with this option.  Using Bet to Risk is the option most professionals use because it allows them to keep better bankroll management with standard bet sizing.  While the standard juice, or even larger moneyline odds will dictate the amount won, using Bet to Risk will keep your bankroll safer because essentially you won’t be chasing profits with longer odds.

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Strategy & Theory: Statistics Behind Scheduling

Taking all variables into account is key when determining what games to place action on, whether against the spread or over/under.  Other variables come into play, such as weather, referees and their tendencies, etc.  This article will be discussing something else that is equally as important: Scheduling.

Knowing when a team played last, especially coming off a bye week, compared to another team is important for rest purposes.  Additionally, knowing if a team has a “trap” game or even could be looking ahead is important.  Below, we discuss how the variable of scheduling impacts various sports.

NFL: Bye weeks are key in the NFL.  Since 2003, favorites coming off a bye week are 59% ATS.  Additionally, road favorites are 69% ATS.  That is an astonishing rate for such a long period.

College Football: home favorites off a bye are 54.7% ATS

MLB:  Favored teams in the second game of a double header win straight up 62% since 2005.

NBA: During the playoffs, in games 6 & 7, the under is 57.6%.  A longer series and less rest, along with more defense means less shots, and less shots made.

College Basketball: Conference Tournament games with both teams playing the day before have 54.7% win rate on unders.

NHL: Teams with three days off vs teams in game 2 of consecutive days playing are 59% winners since 2005.

Review these statistics as you look over the slate of games.  It may not be a sole reason to place action, but it may help check off more boxes as a reason to make a wager.

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PSA: Popularity Polls vs. Power Rankings

We have stated several times in our posts about the importance of power rankings.  Using a true set of quantifiable data means a lot more than what team is trending or popular.  This can help or hinder your bankroll, depending on how you use them.

Popularity polls weigh previous results.  They are often done by fans, not sports bettors.  Teams that are popular, get more TV time, have the biggest stars, etc often do well.  Likely, the teams at the top aren’t as good as their ranking, nor are the teams at the bottom as bad as theirs.  

Power rankings are a predictive tool.  They use measurable statistics, accounting for several key variables that can include a lot of the information that the books use for setting and adjusting lines. 

A sports bettor only cares about making money going forward.  The popularity polls don’t help with that.  The power rankings do.  The popularity polls are for entertainment purposes only.  As you approach an upcoming slate of games, remember there is a reason the best sports bettors use power rankings.  Often times, it will be an immediate indication of a soft line, a total that is too high/low, or even knowing when to stay away from a game they would normally place action on.

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