Strategy & Theory: Know What Needs to Happen

How often do we see the last week of the NFL season be the determining factor as to who gets a top seed, who is playing for a home game, and who even makes the playoffs.  Clearly the players and coaches know this.  And so do the books.

One strategy that has been important to utilize has been knowing what needs to happen for each team on that final week.  For example, if a team is playing for a top seed or even to make the playoffs, they will be highly motivated to win their final regular season game.  Notice we didn’t say cover their final regular season game.  Often times the books will post larger than normal lines on the favorites in these situations.  They know the public is looking to back the favorite in a “must-win” situation.  Don’t fall victim to this trap.  

Identify these teams after the close of the 2nd to last regular season game and get ready to back them... on the moneyline.  If the Packers are playing for the top seed in the NFC, and only need a win, they don’t care about covering the 11-point spread.  They only care about winning.

Another idea to keep in mind is to know the schedule of games in chronological order.  You could have two teams playing in the final week where one is playing for home field and the other is playing to just get in.  If Team B can only make the playoffs if Team A loses, and Team A plays at 1:00 and loses, get ready to fire away on Team B before their 4:00 start.  Knowing each scenario is important.  And always take monelylines.  When their playoffs, home-field, and bye weeks are on the line, these teams want to win and stay healthy.  That’s it.

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Bankroll Management: Bet to Risk vs. Bet to Win

When you go to place your wager at the window, you have two primary options: Bet to Risk and Bet to Win.  While it isn’t a difficult concept to understand, how you apply it to your bankroll can make a huge impact.  Let’s look at both options.

Bet to Risk is simply placing a bet and having the juice (or plus money payout) applied to the amount of money bet.  Let’s say you take a moneyline bet on the Lakers at -150.  You bet $100.  If the Lakers win, you win $66.67 and get your initial $100 back for a total of $166.67.  Of course if the Lakers lose, you get $0.

Bet to Win means that you are targeting an amount you want to win on the bet, and let the current odds dictate how much you have to risk.  In the example above, if you wanted to win $100 on the Lakers at the same odds, you would need to risk $150 at -150 odds. 

Because sports bettors have both options, you are in control of which type you choose.  But, it is important to keep in mind that while you have control, knowing what situations to use each is critical.  

Using Bet to Win can be helpful if you are trying to target a specific dollar amount to increase your bankroll to in a short time period.  You simply pick your action and go with this option.  Using Bet to Risk is the option most professionals use because it allows them to keep better bankroll management with standard bet sizing.  While the standard juice, or even larger moneyline odds will dictate the amount won, using Bet to Risk will keep your bankroll safer because essentially you won’t be chasing profits with longer odds.

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Strategy & Theory: Statistics Behind Scheduling

Taking all variables into account is key when determining what games to place action on, whether against the spread or over/under.  Other variables come into play, such as weather, referees and their tendencies, etc.  This article will be discussing something else that is equally as important: Scheduling.

Knowing when a team played last, especially coming off a bye week, compared to another team is important for rest purposes.  Additionally, knowing if a team has a “trap” game or even could be looking ahead is important.  Below, we discuss how the variable of scheduling impacts various sports.

NFL: Bye weeks are key in the NFL.  Since 2003, favorites coming off a bye week are 59% ATS.  Additionally, road favorites are 69% ATS.  That is an astonishing rate for such a long period.

College Football: home favorites off a bye are 54.7% ATS

MLB:  Favored teams in the second game of a double header win straight up 62% since 2005.

NBA: During the playoffs, in games 6 & 7, the under is 57.6%.  A longer series and less rest, along with more defense means less shots, and less shots made.

College Basketball: Conference Tournament games with both teams playing the day before have 54.7% win rate on unders.

NHL: Teams with three days off vs teams in game 2 of consecutive days playing are 59% winners since 2005.

Review these statistics as you look over the slate of games.  It may not be a sole reason to place action, but it may help check off more boxes as a reason to make a wager.

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PSA: Popularity Polls vs. Power Rankings

We have stated several times in our posts about the importance of power rankings.  Using a true set of quantifiable data means a lot more than what team is trending or popular.  This can help or hinder your bankroll, depending on how you use them.

Popularity polls weigh previous results.  They are often done by fans, not sports bettors.  Teams that are popular, get more TV time, have the biggest stars, etc often do well.  Likely, the teams at the top aren’t as good as their ranking, nor are the teams at the bottom as bad as theirs.  

Power rankings are a predictive tool.  They use measurable statistics, accounting for several key variables that can include a lot of the information that the books use for setting and adjusting lines. 

A sports bettor only cares about making money going forward.  The popularity polls don’t help with that.  The power rankings do.  The popularity polls are for entertainment purposes only.  As you approach an upcoming slate of games, remember there is a reason the best sports bettors use power rankings.  Often times, it will be an immediate indication of a soft line, a total that is too high/low, or even knowing when to stay away from a game they would normally place action on.

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PSA: Learn from Losses

When growing up, it was common to get advice from parents, coaches, teachers, etc about learning from failures.  It could have been a bad decision you made, a tough loss on the field, or a bad test grade.  You rarely hear about people learning from wins.  Because it is the losses that are supposed to make us better.

The same holds true in sports betting.  Often times, when winning, sports bettors don’t evaluate their plays or what they should have seen before a game started.  The only thing that matters is the bankroll increasing. While it is important to try to figure out if the wins are based upon sound research, timing a line movement, or other, it is equally important to realize if the win was because of a bad call in a game, a team not scoring from the 1-yard line as the game clock ran out, or any one of a number of ways that you can win (or lose) based upon a specific event in a game.

The losses, however, are where a sports bettor can grow the most.  Losses help make sports gamblers better at research, bankroll management, market timing, shopping for the best line, etc.  It is paramount to review both losses and wins for your own personal betterment.  

Finally, how you react to losses can help or hinder you.  For example, if your immediate response to a loss is to begin chasing, that is a sign of bad things to come.  Placing hard earned money on a game without research will ultimately lead to the books getting more of your bankroll.  As Todd Fuhrman once said, “If you trust your long term edge, don’t fall victim to short term variance”.

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PSA: Sports Betting Markets are Truth Serum

A while back, we posted a story about how there was a significant change in the Ohio State title odds preseason because of an injury.  Braxton Miller suffered what appeared to be a mild injury at practice.  There was a general level of concern because he was the starting QB and had won numerous awards in previous years.  

Something interesting happened in the betting futures market approximately 30 minutes prior to the update from the medical staff:  The Ohio State futures odds plummeted. What most saw as a mild injury turned into being lost for the season.  

Making a market for events is key for book makers.  Another example of this happened in the 2020 US Presidential election.  For several months you could find Biden -200 or Trump +165 etc.  But as the states started reporting the night of the election, there was a seismic shift.  Trump was all the way to -475 and Biden was +300.  Again, the books were making a market, and the bettors were moving it based on what they knew.  News outlets even began to discuss live odds on the election.  There was over $500M bet on the outcome.  This is evidence how gambling (and even in-game) is becoming more prevalent in society.

While both of these events ended up having huge swings, and based upon earlier information, wild endings, there is a lesson to be learned here.  Remember that a casual fan doesn’t make their mortgage payment based on the outcomes of sporting events (or politics).  Professionals do.  If you ever want to know what is likely to happen based on information that may not be public, ask someone who makes their living trading off that information.  The betting markets are truth serum.

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System Betting: NHL Home Dogs ATS

As we continue to explore profitable system bets, today we are looking into finding an edge for NHL Home dogs ATS (+1.5 goals).  This is a system that was brought to our attention years ago, so we decided to look into what history tells us.

There are several advantages to home teams in the NHL that don’t translate from other sports.  For example, the home team gets to make the last substitution, which allows them to see what their opponent is doing first.  Also, the home team gets to put their stick down last in a face off, which statistically gives a slight edge to the home team.

Over a recent sample period, in the last 315 games in which the home team was the underdog, taking the 1.5 goals as won 209 of the 315 games for 66.3% of the time.  This is a remarkably high percentage that can’t be ignored.  

One thing to keep in mind is the juice.  These games are typically not standard juice.  Often times you will need to lay extra juice (ie -180 for example).  So, keeping this in mind, it would make the most sense to stay with the games that are closer to -110 with taking the 1.5 goals.

It is also interesting to note that ALL dogs getting 1.5 goals has recently won 65.1% of the time, and away dogs getting 1.5 goals has won 64.5% of the time.  Again, keep the juice in mind when you are looking to play these systems.

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