Strategy & Theory: Know What Needs to Happen

How often do we see the last week of the NFL season be the determining factor as to who gets a top seed, who is playing for a home game, and who even makes the playoffs.  Clearly the players and coaches know this.  And so do the books.

One strategy that has been important to utilize has been knowing what needs to happen for each team on that final week.  For example, if a team is playing for a top seed or even to make the playoffs, they will be highly motivated to win their final regular season game.  Notice we didn’t say cover their final regular season game.  Often times the books will post larger than normal lines on the favorites in these situations.  They know the public is looking to back the favorite in a “must-win” situation.  Don’t fall victim to this trap.  

Identify these teams after the close of the 2nd to last regular season game and get ready to back them... on the moneyline.  If the Packers are playing for the top seed in the NFC, and only need a win, they don’t care about covering the 11-point spread.  They only care about winning.

Another idea to keep in mind is to know the schedule of games in chronological order.  You could have two teams playing in the final week where one is playing for home field and the other is playing to just get in.  If Team B can only make the playoffs if Team A loses, and Team A plays at 1:00 and loses, get ready to fire away on Team B before their 4:00 start.  Knowing each scenario is important.  And always take monelylines.  When their playoffs, home-field, and bye weeks are on the line, these teams want to win and stay healthy.  That’s it.

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Bankroll Management: Bet to Risk vs. Bet to Win

When you go to place your wager at the window, you have two primary options: Bet to Risk and Bet to Win.  While it isn’t a difficult concept to understand, how you apply it to your bankroll can make a huge impact.  Let’s look at both options.

Bet to Risk is simply placing a bet and having the juice (or plus money payout) applied to the amount of money bet.  Let’s say you take a moneyline bet on the Lakers at -150.  You bet $100.  If the Lakers win, you win $66.67 and get your initial $100 back for a total of $166.67.  Of course if the Lakers lose, you get $0.

Bet to Win means that you are targeting an amount you want to win on the bet, and let the current odds dictate how much you have to risk.  In the example above, if you wanted to win $100 on the Lakers at the same odds, you would need to risk $150 at -150 odds. 

Because sports bettors have both options, you are in control of which type you choose.  But, it is important to keep in mind that while you have control, knowing what situations to use each is critical.  

Using Bet to Win can be helpful if you are trying to target a specific dollar amount to increase your bankroll to in a short time period.  You simply pick your action and go with this option.  Using Bet to Risk is the option most professionals use because it allows them to keep better bankroll management with standard bet sizing.  While the standard juice, or even larger moneyline odds will dictate the amount won, using Bet to Risk will keep your bankroll safer because essentially you won’t be chasing profits with longer odds.

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Strategy & Theory: Statistics Behind Scheduling

Taking all variables into account is key when determining what games to place action on, whether against the spread or over/under.  Other variables come into play, such as weather, referees and their tendencies, etc.  This article will be discussing something else that is equally as important: Scheduling.

Knowing when a team played last, especially coming off a bye week, compared to another team is important for rest purposes.  Additionally, knowing if a team has a “trap” game or even could be looking ahead is important.  Below, we discuss how the variable of scheduling impacts various sports.

NFL: Bye weeks are key in the NFL.  Since 2003, favorites coming off a bye week are 59% ATS.  Additionally, road favorites are 69% ATS.  That is an astonishing rate for such a long period.

College Football: home favorites off a bye are 54.7% ATS

MLB:  Favored teams in the second game of a double header win straight up 62% since 2005.

NBA: During the playoffs, in games 6 & 7, the under is 57.6%.  A longer series and less rest, along with more defense means less shots, and less shots made.

College Basketball: Conference Tournament games with both teams playing the day before have 54.7% win rate on unders.

NHL: Teams with three days off vs teams in game 2 of consecutive days playing are 59% winners since 2005.

Review these statistics as you look over the slate of games.  It may not be a sole reason to place action, but it may help check off more boxes as a reason to make a wager.

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PSA: Popularity Polls vs. Power Rankings

We have stated several times in our posts about the importance of power rankings.  Using a true set of quantifiable data means a lot more than what team is trending or popular.  This can help or hinder your bankroll, depending on how you use them.

Popularity polls weigh previous results.  They are often done by fans, not sports bettors.  Teams that are popular, get more TV time, have the biggest stars, etc often do well.  Likely, the teams at the top aren’t as good as their ranking, nor are the teams at the bottom as bad as theirs.  

Power rankings are a predictive tool.  They use measurable statistics, accounting for several key variables that can include a lot of the information that the books use for setting and adjusting lines. 

A sports bettor only cares about making money going forward.  The popularity polls don’t help with that.  The power rankings do.  The popularity polls are for entertainment purposes only.  As you approach an upcoming slate of games, remember there is a reason the best sports bettors use power rankings.  Often times, it will be an immediate indication of a soft line, a total that is too high/low, or even knowing when to stay away from a game they would normally place action on.

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PSA: Learn from Losses

When growing up, it was common to get advice from parents, coaches, teachers, etc about learning from failures.  It could have been a bad decision you made, a tough loss on the field, or a bad test grade.  You rarely hear about people learning from wins.  Because it is the losses that are supposed to make us better.

The same holds true in sports betting.  Often times, when winning, sports bettors don’t evaluate their plays or what they should have seen before a game started.  The only thing that matters is the bankroll increasing. While it is important to try to figure out if the wins are based upon sound research, timing a line movement, or other, it is equally important to realize if the win was because of a bad call in a game, a team not scoring from the 1-yard line as the game clock ran out, or any one of a number of ways that you can win (or lose) based upon a specific event in a game.

The losses, however, are where a sports bettor can grow the most.  Losses help make sports gamblers better at research, bankroll management, market timing, shopping for the best line, etc.  It is paramount to review both losses and wins for your own personal betterment.  

Finally, how you react to losses can help or hinder you.  For example, if your immediate response to a loss is to begin chasing, that is a sign of bad things to come.  Placing hard earned money on a game without research will ultimately lead to the books getting more of your bankroll.  As Todd Fuhrman once said, “If you trust your long term edge, don’t fall victim to short term variance”.

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PSA: Sports Betting Markets are Truth Serum

A while back, we posted a story about how there was a significant change in the Ohio State title odds preseason because of an injury.  Braxton Miller suffered what appeared to be a mild injury at practice.  There was a general level of concern because he was the starting QB and had won numerous awards in previous years.  

Something interesting happened in the betting futures market approximately 30 minutes prior to the update from the medical staff:  The Ohio State futures odds plummeted. What most saw as a mild injury turned into being lost for the season.  

Making a market for events is key for book makers.  Another example of this happened in the 2020 US Presidential election.  For several months you could find Biden -200 or Trump +165 etc.  But as the states started reporting the night of the election, there was a seismic shift.  Trump was all the way to -475 and Biden was +300.  Again, the books were making a market, and the bettors were moving it based on what they knew.  News outlets even began to discuss live odds on the election.  There was over $500M bet on the outcome.  This is evidence how gambling (and even in-game) is becoming more prevalent in society.

While both of these events ended up having huge swings, and based upon earlier information, wild endings, there is a lesson to be learned here.  Remember that a casual fan doesn’t make their mortgage payment based on the outcomes of sporting events (or politics).  Professionals do.  If you ever want to know what is likely to happen based on information that may not be public, ask someone who makes their living trading off that information.  The betting markets are truth serum.

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System Betting: NHL Home Dogs ATS

As we continue to explore profitable system bets, today we are looking into finding an edge for NHL Home dogs ATS (+1.5 goals).  This is a system that was brought to our attention years ago, so we decided to look into what history tells us.

There are several advantages to home teams in the NHL that don’t translate from other sports.  For example, the home team gets to make the last substitution, which allows them to see what their opponent is doing first.  Also, the home team gets to put their stick down last in a face off, which statistically gives a slight edge to the home team.

Over a recent sample period, in the last 315 games in which the home team was the underdog, taking the 1.5 goals as won 209 of the 315 games for 66.3% of the time.  This is a remarkably high percentage that can’t be ignored.  

One thing to keep in mind is the juice.  These games are typically not standard juice.  Often times you will need to lay extra juice (ie -180 for example).  So, keeping this in mind, it would make the most sense to stay with the games that are closer to -110 with taking the 1.5 goals.

It is also interesting to note that ALL dogs getting 1.5 goals has recently won 65.1% of the time, and away dogs getting 1.5 goals has won 64.5% of the time.  Again, keep the juice in mind when you are looking to play these systems.

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Bank Roll Management: Time Value of Money

The Time Value of Money is a mathematical concept that states, in general, that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar tomorrow (or any date in the future).  So, how is this relevant to placing action with your hard earned dollars?  The concept of Time Value of Money applies to futures bets.

Let’s say you are looking at a season win totals number before a season starts.  Typically, a football season lasts 5 months or so.  Baseball is roughly 7 months.  A basketball or hockey season is approximately 8 months.  There is only so much money in your bankroll.  Applying the Time Value of Money concept would state that you are better off placing action on shorter term outcomes (such as single games) than you are waiting for an entire season to end to collect your winnings.

The concept is that placing action on a single outcome that ends in a significantly shorter time frame will allow you to reinvest those proceeds in future endeavors.  Does that mean you should never place futures action?  Not necessarily.  There are still places to consider placing this type of action.  The best illustration is on plus-money payouts.  

If you can find a season future that offers plus money (ie +140, etc) then you are being compensated for the Time Value of Money.  In the reference above, you are earning a 40% return for the 4-8 months of waiting for the payout.  This can help offset the loss of reinvested future earnings by taking single games at -110.  So, the next time you are looking at season futures, remember how it can impact your earnings potential by having your funds tied up for the duration of a season.

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Strategy & Theory: Teasers and Ifs

Sports bettors typically look at anything outside of flat bets and parlays as exotic type bets.  While these are the two most common bet types, that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t know how to (properly) utilize other types of wagers.  

We think that there are a couple of other types of plays that make sense to utilize in the right situations.  The first type of bet is known as a teaser.  Basically, a teaser is a type of parlay that allows you to modify the points in the direction of your choosing for each leg of the bet.  For example, let’s say you had a 7 point teaser.  You like Team A -7 1/2 points and Team B +6 points.  Utilizing this type of wager makes your bet now Team A -1/2 point and Team B +13 points.  Sounds great, right?  For this additional swing in points, the book pays out well less than standard parlays without the teaser feature.  So when should we utilize this type of wager?  We think it is best when you are looking to get multiplied odds with less risk.   Not every parlay needs to pay 2.6:1 or 6:1.  Some can pay less if they are multiplying your payout by a factor.  Also, assuming utilization of a standard bet size, this also creates less downside risk to your bankroll.

The second exotic we are going to look at is IF bets.  This is where you place action on anywhere from 2 - 7 teams, typically.  The bets are placed in an order, and if your first bet wins, the standard bet size goes to the second game.  If that bet wins, the standard bet size goes to the next game, and so on until all bets are completed or one bet loses.  Notice that this is not a parlay.  The second bet gets placed IF the first bet wins.  With this type of wager, you typically need to win the first two games to come out ahead.  Assuming a $100 standard bet size, you would win $91 (-110) for each consecutive win, with only risking your initial $100.  So how should these be played?  The best way to pick your order is by confidence, not chronological.  The time a game starts has no bearing on the order you pick it.  You can’t win the next bet until you win the first bet.  

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Strategy & Theory: Parlay Analysis

Sports bettors have been lured for years by the high payouts of parlays.  These enticing types of wagers can make for a lot of excitement and a lot of money.  But their risk is substantially higher due to needing to win every “leg” of the bet.  The sportsbooks have made a fortune of these types of bets over the years due to their low win rate.  And the higher the number of teams in the parlay, the lower the probability your ticket is a winner.

Is there a place for this type of action in your betting arsenal?  We think so, but before we get into that, lets have a quick review of a 2-team and 3-team parlay and how they compares to similar flat bets:

First, a 2-team parlay: if you win a 2-team parlay, the standard payout is 2.6x of the bet.  So a $100 bettor would win $260.  But what if you placed flat bets instead?  Assuming standard -110, you would need to win 3 consecutive flat bets (total return of $273) to roughly equal what your 2-team parlay would payout.  In this case, you’d be risking $300 for the same approximate payout as $100 of risk on your 2-team parlay.

Now, a 3-team parlay: If you win a 3-team parlay, the standard payout is 6x of the bet.  So a $100 bettor would win $600.  If you placed flat bets, you would need to win 7 consecutive bets (total return of $637) to roughly equal what your 3-team parlay would pay out, but you’d be risking $700 compared to risking $100 on the parlay.

With this analysis, why don’t sports bettors play more parlays?  The answer comes back to the gold standard in sports betting.  Remember that roughly 53% is the target win percentage to break even, 55% is considered good, and 60% will land you in the sports betting hall of fame.  If you multiply the win probability (50%) across multiple bets in a parlay, you see the odds of winning go down considerably.  For a 2-team it is 50% x 50% = 25% chance of winning.  For a 3-team parlay, it is 50% x 50% x 50% = 12.5% chance.  This is why the sportsbooks entice bettors with the large payouts... because the probability of holding a winning ticket is low.

But we said there was a place for these types of bets in your plays, right?  The way to best utilize these types of bets is as a hedge.  Let’s assume you are looking to place a standard bet size of $100 on 2 different games.  With these flat bets, you can A) win both and net $182, B) lose both and lose $200, or C) split and lose $9.  

However, if you use a 2-team parlay as a hedge, betting against both of your flat bets for $80, the outcome options are as follows: A) win both flats, lose the hedge, and net $102, B) lose both flats, win the hedge, and net $8, or C) split the flats, lose the hedge, and lose $89.

Not using a parlay hedge has 2/3 outcomes as losses.  Using the parlay hedge has 2/3 outcomes as wins.  And, the expected probability average for not hedging is a $27 loss.  The expected probability average for using the hedge is plus $21.  Parlays can be helpful as a hedge, but not as a sole strategy.

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PSA: Professionals Bet Numbers, Not Teams

Professional bettors bet numbers, not teams.  No matter how many times we hear this, it still rings true.  But why do we need a constant reminder and why the distinction of saying “professional” bettors?  Why not just say “sports bettors”?

Experience in the business will teach you that a team is never as good as they looked last game, nor are they as bad as they looked last game.  A team may look fantastic one week, and lay an egg the next.  But to the professionals, they only care about the number.  They don’t see a team name, a player, or a coach.  They see the number.  

How does this number shape the way a professional bettor looks at a game? The answer lies in power rankings.  If you look at websites like ESPN, etc you can find power rankings based on what a handful of analysts think, or worse, what fan bases think.  This is not what we are talking about.  

Power rankings is a list of how teams rank, in order, combining things like offense, defense, efficiency, 3rd down conversions, takeaways, rebounds, FG%, bullpen ERA, etc.  The list begins every season and changes frequently.  Professional bettors have their own list and watch as many games as they can.  Then, they update the list frequently based upon statistics, injuries, etc.  They then compare this list with the lines posted for games. This is where the “betting numbers” part comes in to play.  Have you ever seen a top 25 team playing at home be an underdog to an unranked team?  The reason is because the sports books also have their own rankings, and often times it doesn’t matter what the AP rankings are, etc.  

Ultimately, fine tuning this list frequently is what allows a professional bettor to take advantage of mis-priced lines.  You can find the bet count percentage from most books.  If something doesn’t make sense to you, such as the top 25 team be a home dog to an unranked team, you’ll know the dog has a higher power ranking to the books and the pros.  And often times there will be heavy action on the dog, driving the line further.  

If you haven’t had experience making a list, start with an upcoming season by doing research.  One of the best that we have seen is Phil Steele’s magazine.  He publishes his power rankings in his annual college football magazine each season prior to the start.  As a long time reader, I can tell you that Phil is usually very accurate in these rankings.  As the weeks go on, update the rankings based upon what you observe, what stats you feel are important, etc.  The professionals didn’t become professionals in one season.  This takes years to fine tune, and one season carries over to the next.  This skill will serve you well if you plan to be in this business for the long run.

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Bank Roll Management: Dollar Cost Averaging

With all of the hype on Championship games such as the Super Bowl, College Football Playoff, March Madness Final Four, World Series, Stanley Cup Final, etc. it is easy to focus on a specific event or game.  Often times bettors will put a little extra effort into their strategy and theory for games like these.  While it can be natural to do this with the national attention, we think the same focus should be placed as often as possible on all of your action.

The importance of strategy and theory for not only the bets you make, but when you make them, cannot be overstated.  If can often mean the difference between a profitable and unprofitable event.  Jim Cramer, the host of Mad Money on CNBC often recommends buying stocks in multiple purchases to allow you to get a better price if the stock goes down.  In the investing world, this is called Dollar Cost Averaging.  

The same strategy can help you maximize profit and hedge downside risk in sports betting.  A while back, we detailed our plays on the College Football National Championship game between LSU and Clemson.  We recommended 75% of action on LSU moneyline, 15% action on LSU ATS, and save the final 10% for in-game action in the event that Clemson scored first.

The staggered action allowed for a profitable game if LSU won.  Additionally, it allowed for taking more risk/reward to cover, and ultimately + money options if Clemson scored first.  What happened?  Clemson scored first, LSU came back to not only win, but cover.  The ROI on the event was 61%.  By using a strategy to the game, we minimized risk while still being very profitable.  

The point is this: when looking at a game, develop a plan, and even a backup plan that allow you to minimize risk and maximize reward.  Don’t jump in all at once.  Allow yourself an option of Dollar Cost Averaging.  Rely on your research and allow for in-game action, especially when the game goes against you early.  You can often get + money with most of the game left.

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Strategy & Theory: Inclement Weather

There are several variables to consider when looking at placing action.  Then teams, coaches, power rankings compared to the lines, and so on.  One of the things that is often not accounted for enough is weather, specifically wind and rain.  It is clear the weather doesn’t have an impact on basketball and hockey.  Baseball and football, on the other hand, are mostly played outdoors.  The difficult part about analyzing the impact of weather on a baseball game is two fold.  First, wind can change direction over the course of a three hour game.  A fly ball with the wind in the first inning may be aided into a home run.  The same fly ball against the wind in the seventh inning may be an out in the middle of the infield.  Second, while rain can impact a baseball game, often times if it there is too much of it, the game is suspended.  For these reasons, we tend to stay away from baseball games with inclement weather.

Football, however, can have entire game plans change because of the weather.  The most notable way this can change betting lines is on the over/under, typically driving the number down. Both high wind and rain will favor an offense that can run the ball well and favor a defense that can stop the run because the passing game is severely limited with down the field attempts.  

There are other reasons why the wind and rain can impact football.  Field goal attempts become more difficult in swirling wind.  Now that extra points have been moved back, they too become more difficult.  Both of these play well towards the under.

Become familiar with weather patterns and their impacts on these games.  Think about which stadiums and cities can have this kind of impact as well.  For example, Seattle gets a lot of rain.  Cleveland is right off a lake.  Chicago is known as the Windy City for a reason.  Sports bettors should use some down time to get an education in weather.  Basically, they should become junior meteorologists.  Check the 10 and 7 day forecasts for the cities that are impacted the most by inclement weather.  Understanding the weather patterns progressing over time can give you a huge advantage on the early lines before the forecast becomes a noteworthy item on game day.  Typically, if the wind is blowing > 10mph, it will have an impact on the game.  Also, rain and thunderstorms as well.  Take advantage of this often overlooked information.  A little research and education can go a long way to increasing your bankroll.

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Strategy & Theory: NFL Teasers

Teaser bets are available in football and basketball.  They give the bettor the opportunity to swing the spread in their favor by a pre-determined amount of points.  However, much like a parlay, all teams selected must cover the number in order to win the bet.

Statistically speaking, the higher the points scored, the less the value of each point in a teaser.  This is why most professionals stay away from teaser plays in both college basketball and the NBA.  Additionally, there are typically more points scored in college football than the NFL.  Again, this is why the professionals stay away from teasers in college football.  This leaves us with the NFL to review how to best utilize this type of wager.

One thing to keep in mind is that the books are typically flooded with public money in the NFL.  And, the public loves to play the favorites.  The books know this and can hedge to their advantage.  The typical hedge amount is usually 1/2 point to 1 point against the favorites.

The best type of play for a standard 2-team teaser are games that you can take advantage of lines that go through the two key numbers (3 and 7).  These numbers are the most realized final spread outcomes in NFL games.  In order to go through these lines, you would need to find favorites ranging from -7.5  to -8.5 (which buys your line down to -1.5 to -2.5) OR underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 (which buys your line up to +7.5 to +8.5).  And, if you are betting the underdogs, remember that the “true line” is probably lower, which means you are getting an additional 1/2 point to 1 point in your favor.

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